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If the Republican nominee wins Arizona, will they win the presidency (2024)?
YES
Will the Winnipeg Jets have 34 points by end of November
YES
Will Adam Schiff win the 2024 senate seat in California?
YES
Will Kamala Harris win the debate against Trump? (based on polls)
YES
Will there be a Al Smith dinner with both presidential candidates attending and delivering stand-up routines in 2024?
NO
Will @BTE release an early version of his Manifold competitor by Christmas?
NO
Conservative Party leadership contest - will it go to the members?
YES
Will Brazil unban X before October?
NO
Will Donald Trump use the Fifty Cent song "Many Men" in any public appearance during the 2024 campaign?
NO
Will Tom Brady endorse Trump?
NO
HN Hiring Trends: Will "hiring" outnumber "looking" before the end of 2024?
NO
Will a Category 3 or greater hurricane make landfall in Florida during 2024?
YES
🧨 Short-fuse 1 in 3 odds
NO
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Oct 1 than it closed on Sept 30?
NO
Will Dragon's Dogma 2 win any awards at the Game Awards 2024?
NO
Will the NeurIPS poster printing service have our poster ready in time?
YES
Will any 2024 U.S. Senate election be won without the majority of the vote?
YES
Will Matt Gaetz be re-elected in November 2024?
YES
Will Republicans lead in the final 538 House forecast?
NO
Will Bitcoin reach $87654.32 before the end of 2024?
YES
Will Trevor Bauer start a game in the major leagues in the 2024 season?
NO
will this prediction market get 50 or more traders?
NO
Will The Amazing Digital Circus Episode 3 reach 100 million views by the end of October?
NO
Will a candidate that is neither backed by the Republican Party or the Democratic Party run in the 2024 United States presidential election and receive at least 5% of the national popular vote?
NO
Will Destiny do an IRL stream with Aba during 2024?
YES
Will Balatro be nominated for any awards at the Game Awards 2024?
YES
Will ALL of New England vote as a unified bloc in the 2024?
NO
Are these two supposed pictures of the United Healthcare CEO assassin actually different people?
NO
Will Shekel vs Dollar reach 4.0 in 2024?
NO
Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump die before the 2024 Presidential election?
NO
Was Amelia Earheart's plane just discovered in the Pacific?
NO
Will Prince William and Kate Middleton divorce before Halloween 2024?
NO
Will I loose power again do to this other hurricane potentially forming right after Helen (Greenville, SC)?
NO
Will Trump say AI is a problem during a presidential debate?
NO
Will the Daily Coinflip on Tuesday 5th correspond to the result of the 2024 USA election? (Head-Harris or Tails-Trump)
YES
Will Rashee Rice play in at least 9 games this season?
NO
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election carry the state of Virginia?
NO
Will "Joker: Folie à Deux" have a higher Rotten Tomatoes audience score than "The LEGO Batman Movie"? (>80%)
NO
Will Trump win either 35% of the Hispanic/Latino vote or 15% of the black vote in 2024?
YES
Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2024?
NO
Will Manifold users think that sweepstakes markets are real money markets?
YES
Daily coinflip 🔧
NO
Will Belarus openly enter the Russo-Ukrainian war?
NO
Will "GPT" be said by anyone in a presidential debate in 2024?
NO
Will the value of Bitcoin pass 100k USD by the end of 2024?
YES
NOAA - Will September 2024 be the hottest September on record? (Global)
NO
Will Manifold Markets stop being weird about Jimmy Carter before 2025?
NO
Will a bug be discovered in 538's 2024 presidential forecast that affects it by at least 3% by election day?
NO
Will Trump win at least thirty states?
YES
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in October 2024?
YES
Will I restrict my food-buying behaviour in line with the rules of this market until the end of the year?
YES
Will Astro Bot be nominated for Game of the Year at the Game Awards 2024?
YES
Was Sam Altman fired because the board suspected he'd created an undisclosed AGI?
NO
Will Yahya Sinwar, founder of Hamas, survive 2024?
NO
Will I lose 20+ lbs after taking semaglutide for 3 months?
YES
Will Jimmy Carter live to be 101 years old?
NO
Will the UK outright maximum temperature record be broken in 2024?
NO
Will Ukraine hold a presidential election in 2024?
NO
Will Messi play for Barcelona in 2024?
NO
Will Democrats control both the House and Senate after the 2024 elections?
NO
Will Kamala Harris win at least 2 midwestern "tossup" states but lose the election?
NO
Will any state be decided by <1% in the 2024 election?
YES
Will someone start a mana investing service on manifold ?
NO
A serious US presidential candidate says they'll take decisive action in the case of near term AI risk.
NO
Will Tesla's market capitalization surpass $1 trillion by the end of 2024?
YES
Will Sweden try to ban burning the Quran by the end of 2024?
NO
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election?
YES
Will Texas vote to the left of Florida in the 2024 presidential election?
NO
NFL Week 7 (Oct 20): Will the Indianapolis Colts beat the Miami Dolphins?
YES
🏈 2024 NFL: Will any Week 3 game end in Scorigami?
NO
Will I be on the "Top traders" leaderboard before @Conflux is on the "Top creators" one?
NO
Ryan Binkley >1% in any state?
NO
Will China lower it’s one year LPR by the end of 2024?
YES
Oktoberfest 2024: Will more than 7 million litres of beer be served again?
YES
Will an AI-powered dating app significantly improve on the current state of the art by October 2024?
NO
[Polymarket-linked] Another Iran strike on Israel in October?
NO
Will Amazon begin to accept Bitcoin as payment by the end of 2024?
NO
Will Lauren Boebert be reelected in CO-3 in 2024?
NO
Will the Dodgers hold their position at #1 in the NL West until the 2024 season ends?
YES
Daily coinflip
YES
Will Bluesky have more active users than Mastodon by the end of 2025?
YES
NFL Week 10 (Nov 10 2024): Will the Jacksonville Jaguars (home) beat the Minnesota Vikings (away)?
NO
Will Destiny reach 836k subscribers in October 2024?
YES
Will Kamala Harris hold a gun before election day?
NO
Will Trump debate Chris Christie before the 2024 presidential election?
NO
Will Jimmy Carter be alive when this market rolls a critical hit? [Round 2]
NO
Bitcoin above $100K on Thanksgiving?
NO
Will Rafael Nadal win another Grand Slam before his retirement?
NO
[2024 Formula 1 season] Will Alphatauri place 6th or higher in the Constructor's Championship?
NO
Will Donald Trump win Pennsylvania's vote in the 2024 election?
YES
A prominent self-identifying Effective Altruist endorses Ron DeSantis for president in 2024.
NO
Will Andrew Yang run for President in 2024?
NO
Will I get a job in 2024?
YES
Will Trump win all 3 of the "Blue Wall" states (MI, WI, PA) in the 2024 Presidential Election?
YES
Will 'The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom' have outsold 'Super Smash Bros. Ultimate' at any point before 2025?
NO
Will Luigi Mangione plead guilty to murder?
NO
Will BALENCIAGA register an increase in sales of their puffer jackets due to the recent AI generated images going viral?
NO
In Oldschool Runescape, will a new league start before the end of 2024?
YES
Will one candidate win at least 5/7 tossup states?
YES
Will a play money alternative to manifold appear before 2025?
YES