question stringlengths 10 193 | answer stringclasses 2 values |
|---|---|
If the Republican nominee wins Arizona, will they win the presidency (2024)? | YES |
Will the Winnipeg Jets have 34 points by end of November | YES |
Will Adam Schiff win the 2024 senate seat in California? | YES |
Will Kamala Harris win the debate against Trump? (based on polls) | YES |
Will there be a Al Smith dinner with both presidential candidates attending and delivering stand-up routines in 2024? | NO |
Will @BTE release an early version of his Manifold competitor by Christmas? | NO |
Conservative Party leadership contest - will it go to the members? | YES |
Will Brazil unban X before October? | NO |
Will Donald Trump use the Fifty Cent song "Many Men" in any public appearance during the 2024 campaign? | NO |
Will Tom Brady endorse Trump? | NO |
HN Hiring Trends: Will "hiring" outnumber "looking" before the end of 2024? | NO |
Will a Category 3 or greater hurricane make landfall in Florida during 2024? | YES |
🧨 Short-fuse 1 in 3 odds | NO |
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Oct 1 than it closed on Sept 30? | NO |
Will Dragon's Dogma 2 win any awards at the Game Awards 2024? | NO |
Will the NeurIPS poster printing service have our poster ready in time? | YES |
Will any 2024 U.S. Senate election be won without the majority of the vote? | YES |
Will Matt Gaetz be re-elected in November 2024? | YES |
Will Republicans lead in the final 538 House forecast? | NO |
Will Bitcoin reach $87654.32 before the end of 2024? | YES |
Will Trevor Bauer start a game in the major leagues in the 2024 season? | NO |
will this prediction market get 50 or more traders? | NO |
Will The Amazing Digital Circus Episode 3 reach 100 million views by the end of October? | NO |
Will a candidate that is neither backed by the Republican Party or the Democratic Party run in the 2024 United States presidential election and receive at least 5% of the national popular vote? | NO |
Will Destiny do an IRL stream with Aba during 2024? | YES |
Will Balatro be nominated for any awards at the Game Awards 2024? | YES |
Will ALL of New England vote as a unified bloc in the 2024? | NO |
Are these two supposed pictures of the United Healthcare CEO assassin actually different people? | NO |
Will Shekel vs Dollar reach 4.0 in 2024? | NO |
Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump die before the 2024 Presidential election? | NO |
Was Amelia Earheart's plane just discovered in the Pacific? | NO |
Will Prince William and Kate Middleton divorce before Halloween 2024? | NO |
Will I loose power again do to this other hurricane potentially forming right after Helen (Greenville, SC)? | NO |
Will Trump say AI is a problem during a presidential debate? | NO |
Will the Daily Coinflip on Tuesday 5th correspond to the result of the 2024 USA election? (Head-Harris or Tails-Trump) | YES |
Will Rashee Rice play in at least 9 games this season? | NO |
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election carry the state of Virginia? | NO |
Will "Joker: Folie à Deux" have a higher Rotten Tomatoes audience score than "The LEGO Batman Movie"? (>80%) | NO |
Will Trump win either 35% of the Hispanic/Latino vote or 15% of the black vote in 2024? | YES |
Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2024? | NO |
Will Manifold users think that sweepstakes markets are real money markets? | YES |
Daily coinflip 🔧 | NO |
Will Belarus openly enter the Russo-Ukrainian war? | NO |
Will "GPT" be said by anyone in a presidential debate in 2024? | NO |
Will the value of Bitcoin pass 100k USD by the end of 2024? | YES |
NOAA - Will September 2024 be the hottest September on record? (Global) | NO |
Will Manifold Markets stop being weird about Jimmy Carter before 2025? | NO |
Will a bug be discovered in 538's 2024 presidential forecast that affects it by at least 3% by election day? | NO |
Will Trump win at least thirty states? | YES |
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in October 2024? | YES |
Will I restrict my food-buying behaviour in line with the rules of this market until the end of the year? | YES |
Will Astro Bot be nominated for Game of the Year at the Game Awards 2024? | YES |
Was Sam Altman fired because the board suspected he'd created an undisclosed AGI? | NO |
Will Yahya Sinwar, founder of Hamas, survive 2024? | NO |
Will I lose 20+ lbs after taking semaglutide for 3 months? | YES |
Will Jimmy Carter live to be 101 years old? | NO |
Will the UK outright maximum temperature record be broken in 2024? | NO |
Will Ukraine hold a presidential election in 2024? | NO |
Will Messi play for Barcelona in 2024? | NO |
Will Democrats control both the House and Senate after the 2024 elections? | NO |
Will Kamala Harris win at least 2 midwestern "tossup" states but lose the election? | NO |
Will any state be decided by <1% in the 2024 election? | YES |
Will someone start a mana investing service on manifold ? | NO |
A serious US presidential candidate says they'll take decisive action in the case of near term AI risk. | NO |
Will Tesla's market capitalization surpass $1 trillion by the end of 2024? | YES |
Will Sweden try to ban burning the Quran by the end of 2024? | NO |
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election? | YES |
Will Texas vote to the left of Florida in the 2024 presidential election? | NO |
NFL Week 7 (Oct 20): Will the Indianapolis Colts beat the Miami Dolphins? | YES |
🏈 2024 NFL: Will any Week 3 game end in Scorigami? | NO |
Will I be on the "Top traders" leaderboard before @Conflux is on the "Top creators" one? | NO |
Ryan Binkley >1% in any state? | NO |
Will China lower it’s one year LPR by the end of 2024? | YES |
Oktoberfest 2024: Will more than 7 million litres of beer be served again? | YES |
Will an AI-powered dating app significantly improve on the current state of the art by October 2024? | NO |
[Polymarket-linked] Another Iran strike on Israel in October? | NO |
Will Amazon begin to accept Bitcoin as payment by the end of 2024? | NO |
Will Lauren Boebert be reelected in CO-3 in 2024? | NO |
Will the Dodgers hold their position at #1 in the NL West until the 2024 season ends? | YES |
Daily coinflip | YES |
Will Bluesky have more active users than Mastodon by the end of 2025? | YES |
NFL Week 10 (Nov 10 2024): Will the Jacksonville Jaguars (home) beat the Minnesota Vikings (away)? | NO |
Will Destiny reach 836k subscribers in October 2024? | YES |
Will Kamala Harris hold a gun before election day? | NO |
Will Trump debate Chris Christie before the 2024 presidential election? | NO |
Will Jimmy Carter be alive when this market rolls a critical hit? [Round 2] | NO |
Bitcoin above $100K on Thanksgiving? | NO |
Will Rafael Nadal win another Grand Slam before his retirement? | NO |
[2024 Formula 1 season] Will Alphatauri place 6th or higher in the Constructor's Championship? | NO |
Will Donald Trump win Pennsylvania's vote in the 2024 election? | YES |
A prominent self-identifying Effective Altruist endorses Ron DeSantis for president in 2024. | NO |
Will Andrew Yang run for President in 2024? | NO |
Will I get a job in 2024? | YES |
Will Trump win all 3 of the "Blue Wall" states (MI, WI, PA) in the 2024 Presidential Election? | YES |
Will 'The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom' have outsold 'Super Smash Bros. Ultimate' at any point before 2025? | NO |
Will Luigi Mangione plead guilty to murder? | NO |
Will BALENCIAGA register an increase in sales of their puffer jackets due to the recent AI generated images going viral? | NO |
In Oldschool Runescape, will a new league start before the end of 2024? | YES |
Will one candidate win at least 5/7 tossup states? | YES |
Will a play money alternative to manifold appear before 2025? | YES |
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