Daily Papers

We study distributionally robust expected values under optimal transport distance with a quadratic cost function. In general the duality method, for this computation for the payoff function f, requires the computation of the λc-transform f^{λc}. We show that under the quadratic cost function there exists an intuitive and easily implementable representation of f^{λc}, if f is convex and piecewise linear. We apply this to the robust expected shortfall under the risk-neutral measure of an unhedged call option, from the point of view of the writer, as well as that of a portfolio mixing underlying shares with a call and a put option.

This paper investigates the problem of ensembling multiple strategies for sequential portfolios to outperform individual strategies in terms of long-term wealth. Due to the uncertainty of strategies' performances in the future market, which are often based on specific models and statistical assumptions, investors often mitigate risk and enhance robustness by combining multiple strategies, akin to common approaches in collective learning prediction. However, the absence of a distribution-free and consistent preference framework complicates decisions of combination due to the ambiguous objective. To address this gap, we introduce a novel framework for decision-making in combining strategies, irrespective of market conditions, by establishing the investor's preference between decisions and then forming a clear objective. Through this framework, we propose a combinatorial strategy construction, free from statistical assumptions, for any scale of component strategies, even infinite, such that it meets the determined criterion. Finally, we test the proposed strategy along with its accelerated variant and some other multi-strategies. The numerical experiments show results in favor of the proposed strategies, albeit with small tradeoffs in their Sharpe ratios, in which their cumulative wealths eventually exceed those of the best component strategies while the accelerated strategy significantly improves performance.

Portfolio management is an essential component of investment strategy that aims to maximize returns while minimizing risk. This paper explores several portfolio management strategies, including asset allocation, diversification, active management, and risk management, and their importance in optimizing portfolio performance. These strategies are examined individually and in combination to demonstrate how they can help investors maximize alpha and minimize beta. Asset allocation is the process of dividing a portfolio among different asset classes to achieve the desired level of risk and return. Diversification involves spreading investments across different securities and sectors to minimize the impact of individual security or sector-specific risks. Active management involves security selection and risk management techniques to generate excess returns while minimizing losses. Risk management strategies, such as stop-loss orders and options strategies, aim to minimize losses in adverse market conditions. The importance of combining these strategies for optimizing portfolio performance is emphasized in this paper. The proper implementation of these strategies can help investors achieve their investment goals over the long-term, while minimizing exposure to risks. A call to action for investors to utilize portfolio management strategies to maximize alpha and minimize beta is also provided.

We propose a credit risk model for portfolios composed of green and brown loans, extending the ASRF framework via a two-factor copula structure. Systematic risk is modeled using potentially skewed distributions, allowing for asymmetric creditworthiness effects, while idiosyncratic risk remains Gaussian. Under a non-uniform exposure setting, we establish convergence in quadratic mean of the portfolio loss to a limit reflecting the distinct characteristics of the two loan segments. Numerical results confirm the theoretical findings and illustrate how value-at-risk is affected by portfolio granularity, default probabilities, factor loadings, and skewness. Our model accommodates differential sensitivity to systematic shocks and offers a tractable basis for further developments in credit risk modeling, including granularity adjustments, CDO pricing, and empirical analysis of green loan portfolios.

The data mixture used in the pre-training of a language model is a cornerstone of its final performance. However, a static mixing strategy is suboptimal, as the model's learning preferences for various data domains shift dynamically throughout training. Crucially, observing these evolving preferences in a computationally efficient manner remains a significant challenge. To address this, we propose TiKMiX, a method that dynamically adjusts the data mixture according to the model's evolving preferences. TiKMiX introduces Group Influence, an efficient metric for evaluating the impact of data domains on the model. This metric enables the formulation of the data mixing problem as a search for an optimal, influence-maximizing distribution. We solve this via two approaches: TiKMiX-D for direct optimization, and TiKMiX-M, which uses a regression model to predict a superior mixture. We trained models with different numbers of parameters, on up to 1 trillion tokens. TiKMiX-D exceeds the performance of state-of-the-art methods like REGMIX while using just 20% of the computational resources. TiKMiX-M leads to an average performance gain of 2% across 9 downstream benchmarks. Our experiments reveal that a model's data preferences evolve with training progress and scale, and we demonstrate that dynamically adjusting the data mixture based on Group Influence, a direct measure of these preferences, significantly improves performance by mitigating the underdigestion of data seen with static ratios.

Data mixing strategies (e.g., CutMix) have shown the ability to greatly improve the performance of convolutional neural networks (CNNs). They mix two images as inputs for training and assign them with a mixed label with the same ratio. While they are shown effective for vision transformers (ViTs), we identify a token fluctuation phenomenon that has suppressed the potential of data mixing strategies. We empirically observe that the contributions of input tokens fluctuate as forward propagating, which might induce a different mixing ratio in the output tokens. The training target computed by the original data mixing strategy can thus be inaccurate, resulting in less effective training. To address this, we propose a token-label alignment (TL-Align) method to trace the correspondence between transformed tokens and the original tokens to maintain a label for each token. We reuse the computed attention at each layer for efficient token-label alignment, introducing only negligible additional training costs. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method improves the performance of ViTs on image classification, semantic segmentation, objective detection, and transfer learning tasks. Code is available at: https://github.com/Euphoria16/TL-Align.

We introduce a novel approach for concept blending in pretrained text-to-image diffusion models, aiming to generate images at the intersection of multiple text prompts. At each time step during diffusion denoising, our algorithm forecasts predictions w.r.t. the generated image and makes informed text conditioning decisions. Central to our method is the unique analogy between diffusion models, which are rooted in non-equilibrium thermodynamics, and the Black-Scholes model for financial option pricing. By drawing parallels between key variables in both domains, we derive a robust algorithm for concept blending that capitalizes on the Markovian dynamics of the Black-Scholes framework. Our text-based concept blending algorithm is data-efficient, meaning it does not need additional training. Furthermore, it operates without human intervention or hyperparameter tuning. We highlight the benefits of our approach by comparing it qualitatively and quantitatively to other text based concept blending techniques, including linear interpolation, alternating prompts, step-wise prompt switching, and CLIP-guided prompt selection across various scenarios such as single object per text prompt, multiple objects per text prompt and objects against backgrounds. Our work shows that financially inspired techniques can enhance text-to-image concept blending in generative AI, paving the way for broader innovation. Code is available at https://github.com/divyakraman/BlackScholesDiffusion2024.

The data used to pretrain large language models has a decisive impact on a model's downstream performance, which has led to a large body of work on data selection methods that aim to automatically determine the most suitable data to use for pretraining. Existing data selection methods suffer from slow and computationally expensive processes, a problem amplified by the increasing size of models and of pretraining datasets. Data mixing, on the other hand, reduces the complexity of data selection by grouping data points together and determining sampling probabilities across entire groups. However, data mixing proportions are typically fixed before training and therefore cannot adapt to changing training dynamics. To address these limitations, we develop an efficient algorithm for Online Data Mixing (ODM) that combines elements from both data selection and data mixing. Based on multi-armed bandit algorithms, our online approach optimizes the data mixing proportions during training. Remarkably, our method trains a model that reaches the final perplexity of the next best method with 19\% fewer training iterations, and improves performance on the 5-shot MMLU benchmark by 1.9% relative accuracy, while adding negligible wall-clock time during pretraining.

In this work, we explore the possibility of utilizing transfer learning techniques to address the financial portfolio optimization problem. We introduce a novel concept called "transfer risk", within the optimization framework of transfer learning. A series of numerical experiments are conducted from three categories: cross-continent transfer, cross-sector transfer, and cross-frequency transfer. In particular, 1. a strong correlation between the transfer risk and the overall performance of transfer learning methods is established, underscoring the significance of transfer risk as a viable indicator of "transferability"; 2. transfer risk is shown to provide a computationally efficient way to identify appropriate source tasks in transfer learning, enhancing the efficiency and effectiveness of the transfer learning approach; 3. additionally, the numerical experiments offer valuable new insights for portfolio management across these different settings.

Language model performance depends on identifying the optimal mixture of data groups to train on (e.g., law, code, math). Prior work has proposed a diverse set of methods to efficiently learn mixture proportions, ranging from fitting regression models over training runs to dynamically updating proportions throughout training. Surprisingly, we find that no existing method consistently outperforms a simple stratified sampling baseline in terms of average test perplexity. To understand this inconsistency, we unify existing methods into a standard framework, showing they are equivalent to solving a common optimization problem: minimize average loss subject to a method-specific mixing law -- an implicit assumption on the relationship between loss and mixture proportions. This framework suggests that measuring the fidelity of a method's mixing law can offer insights into its performance. Empirically, we find that existing methods set their mixing law parameters inaccurately, resulting in the inconsistent mixing performance we observe. Using this insight, we derive a new online method named Aioli, which directly estimates the mixing law parameters throughout training and uses them to dynamically adjust proportions. Aioli outperforms stratified sampling on 6 out of 6 datasets by an average of 0.27 test perplexity points, whereas existing methods fail to consistently beat stratified sampling, doing up to 6.9 points worse. Moreover, in a practical setting where proportions are learned on shorter runs due to computational constraints, Aioli can dynamically adjust these proportions over the full training run, consistently improving performance over existing methods by up to 12.012 test perplexity points.

Designing an optimum portfolio for allocating suitable weights to its constituent assets so that the return and risk associated with the portfolio are optimized is a computationally hard problem. The seminal work of Markowitz that attempted to solve the problem by estimating the future returns of the stocks is found to perform sub-optimally on real-world stock market data. This is because the estimation task becomes extremely challenging due to the stochastic and volatile nature of stock prices. This work illustrates three approaches to portfolio design minimizing the risk, optimizing the risk, and assigning equal weights to the stocks of a portfolio. Thirteen critical sectors listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India are first chosen. Three portfolios are designed following the above approaches choosing the top ten stocks from each sector based on their free-float market capitalization. The portfolios are designed using the historical prices of the stocks from Jan 1, 2017, to Dec 31, 2022. The portfolios are evaluated on the stock price data from Jan 1, 2022, to Dec 31, 2022. The performances of the portfolios are compared, and the portfolio yielding the higher return for each sector is identified.

A diversified risk-adjusted time-series momentum (TSMOM) portfolio can deliver substantial abnormal returns and offer some degree of tail risk protection during extreme market events. The performance of existing TSMOM strategies, however, relies not only on the quality of the momentum signal but also on the efficacy of the volatility estimator. Yet many of the existing studies have always considered these two factors to be independent. Inspired by recent progress in Multi-Task Learning (MTL), we present a new approach using MTL in a deep neural network architecture that jointly learns portfolio construction and various auxiliary tasks related to volatility, such as forecasting realized volatility as measured by different volatility estimators. Through backtesting from January 2000 to December 2020 on a diversified portfolio of continuous futures contracts, we demonstrate that even after accounting for transaction costs of up to 3 basis points, our approach outperforms existing TSMOM strategies. Moreover, experiments confirm that adding auxiliary tasks indeed boosts the portfolio's performance. These findings demonstrate that MTL can be a powerful tool in finance.

Is bigger always better for time series foundation models? With the question in mind, we explore an alternative to training a single, large monolithic model: building a portfolio of smaller, pretrained forecasting models. By applying ensembling or model selection over these portfolios, we achieve competitive performance on large-scale benchmarks using much fewer parameters. We explore strategies for designing such portfolios and find that collections of specialist models consistently outperform portfolios of independently trained generalists. Remarkably, we demonstrate that post-training a base model is a compute-effective approach for creating sufficiently diverse specialists, and provide evidences that ensembling and model selection are more compute-efficient than test-time fine-tuning.

Have you ever imagined what a corgi-alike coffee machine or a tiger-alike rabbit would look like? In this work, we attempt to answer these questions by exploring a new task called semantic mixing, aiming at blending two different semantics to create a new concept (e.g., corgi + coffee machine -- > corgi-alike coffee machine). Unlike style transfer, where an image is stylized according to the reference style without changing the image content, semantic blending mixes two different concepts in a semantic manner to synthesize a novel concept while preserving the spatial layout and geometry. To this end, we present MagicMix, a simple yet effective solution based on pre-trained text-conditioned diffusion models. Motivated by the progressive generation property of diffusion models where layout/shape emerges at early denoising steps while semantically meaningful details appear at later steps during the denoising process, our method first obtains a coarse layout (either by corrupting an image or denoising from a pure Gaussian noise given a text prompt), followed by injection of conditional prompt for semantic mixing. Our method does not require any spatial mask or re-training, yet is able to synthesize novel objects with high fidelity. To improve the mixing quality, we further devise two simple strategies to provide better control and flexibility over the synthesized content. With our method, we present our results over diverse downstream applications, including semantic style transfer, novel object synthesis, breed mixing, and concept removal, demonstrating the flexibility of our method. More results can be found on the project page https://magicmix.github.io

Data mixing augmentation has been widely applied to improve the generalization ability of deep neural networks. Recently, offline data mixing augmentation, e.g. handcrafted and saliency information-based mixup, has been gradually replaced by automatic mixing approaches. Through minimizing two sub-tasks, namely, mixed sample generation and mixup classification in an end-to-end way, AutoMix significantly improves accuracy on image classification tasks. However, as the optimization objective is consistent for the two sub-tasks, this approach is prone to generating consistent instead of diverse mixed samples, which results in overfitting for target task training. In this paper, we propose AdAutomixup, an adversarial automatic mixup augmentation approach that generates challenging samples to train a robust classifier for image classification, by alternatively optimizing the classifier and the mixup sample generator. AdAutomixup comprises two modules, a mixed example generator, and a target classifier. The mixed sample generator aims to produce hard mixed examples to challenge the target classifier, while the target classifier's aim is to learn robust features from hard mixed examples to improve generalization. To prevent the collapse of the inherent meanings of images, we further introduce an exponential moving average (EMA) teacher and cosine similarity to train AdAutomixup in an end-to-end way. Extensive experiments on seven image benchmarks consistently prove that our approach outperforms the state of the art in various classification scenarios. The source code is available at https://github.com/JinXins/Adversarial-AutoMixup.

Creating novel images by fusing visual cues from multiple sources is a fundamental yet underexplored problem in image-to-image generation, with broad applications in artistic creation, virtual reality and visual media. Existing methods often face two key challenges: coexistent generation, where multiple objects are simply juxtaposed without true integration, and bias generation, where one object dominates the output due to semantic imbalance. To address these issues, we propose Visual Mixing Diffusion (VMDiff), a simple yet effective diffusion-based framework that synthesizes a single, coherent object by integrating two input images at both noise and latent levels. Our approach comprises: (1) a hybrid sampling process that combines guided denoising, inversion, and spherical interpolation with adjustable parameters to achieve structure-aware fusion, mitigating coexistent generation; and (2) an efficient adaptive adjustment module, which introduces a novel similarity-based score to automatically and adaptively search for optimal parameters, countering semantic bias. Experiments on a curated benchmark of 780 concept pairs demonstrate that our method outperforms strong baselines in visual quality, semantic consistency, and human-rated creativity.

Mixup data augmentation approaches have been applied for various tasks of deep learning to improve the generalization ability of deep neural networks. Some existing approaches CutMix, SaliencyMix, etc. randomly replace a patch in one image with patches from another to generate the mixed image. Similarly, the corresponding labels are linearly combined by a fixed ratio lambda by l. The objects in two images may be overlapped during the mixing process, so some semantic information is corrupted in the mixed samples. In this case, the mixed image does not match the mixed label information. Besides, such a label may mislead the deep learning model training, which results in poor performance. To solve this problem, we proposed a novel approach named SUMix to learn the mixing ratio as well as the uncertainty for the mixed samples during the training process. First, we design a learnable similarity function to compute an accurate mix ratio. Second, an approach is investigated as a regularized term to model the uncertainty of the mixed samples. We conduct experiments on five image benchmarks, and extensive experimental results imply that our method is capable of improving the performance of classifiers with different cutting-based mixup approaches. The source code is available at https://github.com/JinXins/SUMix.

Although GRPO substantially enhances flow matching models in human preference alignment of image generation, methods such as FlowGRPO still exhibit inefficiency due to the necessity of sampling and optimizing over all denoising steps specified by the Markov Decision Process (MDP). In this paper, we propose MixGRPO, a novel framework that leverages the flexibility of mixed sampling strategies through the integration of stochastic differential equations (SDE) and ordinary differential equations (ODE). This streamlines the optimization process within the MDP to improve efficiency and boost performance. Specifically, MixGRPO introduces a sliding window mechanism, using SDE sampling and GRPO-guided optimization only within the window, while applying ODE sampling outside. This design confines sampling randomness to the time-steps within the window, thereby reducing the optimization overhead, and allowing for more focused gradient updates to accelerate convergence. Additionally, as time-steps beyond the sliding window are not involved in optimization, higher-order solvers are supported for sampling. So we present a faster variant, termed MixGRPO-Flash, which further improves training efficiency while achieving comparable performance. MixGRPO exhibits substantial gains across multiple dimensions of human preference alignment, outperforming DanceGRPO in both effectiveness and efficiency, with nearly 50% lower training time. Notably, MixGRPO-Flash further reduces training time by 71%. Codes and models are available at https://github.com/Tencent-Hunyuan/MixGRPO{MixGRPO}.

Portfolio optimization is a challenging problem that has attracted considerable attention and effort from researchers. The optimization of stock portfolios is a particularly hard problem since the stock prices are volatile and estimation of their future volatilities and values, in most cases, is very difficult, if not impossible. This work uses three ratios, the Sharpe ratio, the Sortino ratio, and the Calmar ratio, for designing the mean-variance optimized portfolios for six important sectors listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. Three portfolios are designed for each sector maximizing the ratios based on the historical prices of the ten most important stocks of each sector from Jan 1, 2017, to Dec 31, 2020. The evaluation of the portfolios is done based on their cumulative returns over the test period from Jan 1, 2021, to Dec 31, 2021. The ratio that yields the maximum cumulative returns for both the training and the test periods for the majority of the sectors is identified. The sectors that exhibit the maximum cumulative returns for the same ratio are also identified. The results provide useful insights for investors in the stock market in making their investment decisions based on the current return and risks associated with the six sectors and their stocks.

Designing an optimum portfolio that allocates weights to its constituent stocks in a way that achieves the best trade-off between the return and the risk is a challenging research problem. The classical mean-variance theory of portfolio proposed by Markowitz is found to perform sub-optimally on the real-world stock market data since the error in estimation for the expected returns adversely affects the performance of the portfolio. This paper presents three approaches to portfolio design, viz, the minimum risk portfolio, the optimum risk portfolio, and the Eigen portfolio, for seven important sectors of the Indian stock market. The daily historical prices of the stocks are scraped from Yahoo Finance website from January 1, 2016, to December 31, 2020. Three portfolios are built for each of the seven sectors chosen for this study, and the portfolios are analyzed on the training data based on several metrics such as annualized return and risk, weights assigned to the constituent stocks, the correlation heatmaps, and the principal components of the Eigen portfolios. Finally, the optimum risk portfolios and the Eigen portfolios for all sectors are tested on their return over a period of a six-month period. The performances of the portfolios are compared and the portfolio yielding the higher return for each sector is identified.

Portfolio optimization has been an area that has attracted considerable attention from the financial research community. Designing a profitable portfolio is a challenging task involving precise forecasting of future stock returns and risks. This chapter presents a comparative study of three portfolio design approaches, the mean-variance portfolio (MVP), hierarchical risk parity (HRP)-based portfolio, and autoencoder-based portfolio. These three approaches to portfolio design are applied to the historical prices of stocks chosen from ten thematic sectors listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. The portfolios are designed using the stock price data from January 1, 2018, to December 31, 2021, and their performances are tested on the out-of-sample data from January 1, 2022, to December 31, 2022. Extensive results are analyzed on the performance of the portfolios. It is observed that the performance of the MVP portfolio is the best on the out-of-sample data for the risk-adjusted returns. However, the autoencoder portfolios outperformed their counterparts on annual returns.

Financial portfolio management is the process of constant redistribution of a fund into different financial products. This paper presents a financial-model-free Reinforcement Learning framework to provide a deep machine learning solution to the portfolio management problem. The framework consists of the Ensemble of Identical Independent Evaluators (EIIE) topology, a Portfolio-Vector Memory (PVM), an Online Stochastic Batch Learning (OSBL) scheme, and a fully exploiting and explicit reward function. This framework is realized in three instants in this work with a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), a basic Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), and a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). They are, along with a number of recently reviewed or published portfolio-selection strategies, examined in three back-test experiments with a trading period of 30 minutes in a cryptocurrency market. Cryptocurrencies are electronic and decentralized alternatives to government-issued money, with Bitcoin as the best-known example of a cryptocurrency. All three instances of the framework monopolize the top three positions in all experiments, outdistancing other compared trading algorithms. Although with a high commission rate of 0.25% in the backtests, the framework is able to achieve at least 4-fold returns in 50 days.

Mixup is a highly successful technique to improve generalization of neural networks by augmenting the training data with combinations of random pairs. Selective mixup is a family of methods that apply mixup to specific pairs, e.g. only combining examples across classes or domains. These methods have claimed remarkable improvements on benchmarks with distribution shifts, but their mechanisms and limitations remain poorly understood. We examine an overlooked aspect of selective mixup that explains its success in a completely new light. We find that the non-random selection of pairs affects the training distribution and improve generalization by means completely unrelated to the mixing. For example in binary classification, mixup across classes implicitly resamples the data for a uniform class distribution - a classical solution to label shift. We show empirically that this implicit resampling explains much of the improvements in prior work. Theoretically, these results rely on a regression toward the mean, an accidental property that we identify in several datasets. We have found a new equivalence between two successful methods: selective mixup and resampling. We identify limits of the former, confirm the effectiveness of the latter, and find better combinations of their respective benefits.

Recent advancements in image mixing and generative data augmentation have shown promise in enhancing image classification. However, these techniques face the challenge of balancing semantic fidelity with diversity. Specifically, image mixing involves interpolating two images to create a new one, but this pixel-level interpolation can compromise fidelity. Generative augmentation uses text-to-image generative models to synthesize or modify images, often limiting diversity to avoid generating out-of-distribution data that potentially affects accuracy. We propose that this fidelity-diversity dilemma partially stems from the whole-image paradigm of existing methods. Since an image comprises the class-dependent part (CDP) and the class-independent part (CIP), where each part has fundamentally different impacts on the image's fidelity, treating different parts uniformly can therefore be misleading. To address this fidelity-diversity dilemma, we introduce Decoupled Data Augmentation (De-DA), which resolves the dilemma by separating images into CDPs and CIPs and handling them adaptively. To maintain fidelity, we use generative models to modify real CDPs under controlled conditions, preserving semantic consistency. To enhance diversity, we replace the image's CIP with inter-class variants, creating diverse CDP-CIP combinations. Additionally, we implement an online randomized combination strategy during training to generate numerous distinct CDP-CIP combinations cost-effectively. Comprehensive empirical evaluations validate the effectiveness of our method.

Data mixing augmentation have proved to be effective in improving the generalization ability of deep neural networks. While early methods mix samples by hand-crafted policies (e.g., linear interpolation), recent methods utilize saliency information to match the mixed samples and labels via complex offline optimization. However, there arises a trade-off between precise mixing policies and optimization complexity. To address this challenge, we propose a novel automatic mixup (AutoMix) framework, where the mixup policy is parameterized and serves the ultimate classification goal directly. Specifically, AutoMix reformulates the mixup classification into two sub-tasks (i.e., mixed sample generation and mixup classification) with corresponding sub-networks and solves them in a bi-level optimization framework. For the generation, a learnable lightweight mixup generator, Mix Block, is designed to generate mixed samples by modeling patch-wise relationships under the direct supervision of the corresponding mixed labels. To prevent the degradation and instability of bi-level optimization, we further introduce a momentum pipeline to train AutoMix in an end-to-end manner. Extensive experiments on nine image benchmarks prove the superiority of AutoMix compared with state-of-the-art in various classification scenarios and downstream tasks.

This chapter presents a calendar rebalancing approach to portfolios of stocks in the Indian stock market. Ten important sectors of the Indian economy are first selected. For each of these sectors, the top ten stocks are identified based on their free-float market capitalization values. Using the ten stocks in each sector, a sector-specific portfolio is designed. In this study, the historical stock prices are used from January 4, 2021, to September 20, 2023 (NSE Website). The portfolios are designed based on the training data from January 4, 2021 to June 30, 2022. The performances of the portfolios are tested over the period from July 1, 2022, to September 20, 2023. The calendar rebalancing approach presented in the chapter is based on a yearly rebalancing method. However, the method presented is perfectly flexible and can be adapted for weekly or monthly rebalancing. The rebalanced portfolios for the ten sectors are analyzed in detail for their performances. The performance results are not only indicative of the relative performances of the sectors over the training (i.e., in-sample) data and test (out-of-sample) data, but they also reflect the overall effectiveness of the proposed portfolio rebalancing approach.

We develop a portfolio allocation framework that leverages deep learning techniques to address challenges arising from high-dimensional, non-stationary, and low-signal-to-noise market information. Our approach includes a dynamic embedding method that reduces the non-stationary, high-dimensional state space into a lower-dimensional representation. We design a reinforcement learning (RL) framework that integrates generative autoencoders and online meta-learning to dynamically embed market information, enabling the RL agent to focus on the most impactful parts of the state space for portfolio allocation decisions. Empirical analysis based on the top 500 U.S. stocks demonstrates that our framework outperforms common portfolio benchmarks and the predict-then-optimize (PTO) approach using machine learning, particularly during periods of market stress. Traditional factor models do not fully explain this superior performance. The framework's ability to time volatility reduces its market exposure during turbulent times. Ablation studies confirm the robustness of this performance across various reinforcement learning algorithms. Additionally, the embedding and meta-learning techniques effectively manage the complexities of high-dimensional, noisy, and non-stationary financial data, enhancing both portfolio performance and risk management.

Pretraining data of large language models composes multiple domains (e.g., web texts, academic papers, codes), whose mixture proportions crucially impact the competence of outcome models. While existing endeavors rely on heuristics or qualitative strategies to tune the proportions, we discover the quantitative predictability of model performance regarding the mixture proportions in function forms, which we refer to as the data mixing laws. Fitting such functions on sample mixtures unveils model performance on unseen mixtures before actual runs, thus guiding the selection of an ideal data mixture. Furthermore, we propose nested use of the scaling laws of training steps, model sizes, and our data mixing law to enable predicting the performance of large models trained on massive data under various mixtures with only small-scale training. Moreover, experimental results verify that our method effectively optimizes the training mixture of a 1B model trained for 100B tokens in RedPajama, reaching a performance comparable to the one trained for 48% more steps on the default mixture. Extending the application of data mixing laws to continual training accurately predicts the critical mixture proportion that avoids catastrophic forgetting and outlooks the potential for dynamic data schedules

Stock price prediction is a challenging task and a lot of propositions exist in the literature in this area. Portfolio construction is a process of choosing a group of stocks and investing in them optimally to maximize the return while minimizing the risk. Since the time when Markowitz proposed the Modern Portfolio Theory, several advancements have happened in the area of building efficient portfolios. An investor can get the best benefit out of the stock market if the investor invests in an efficient portfolio and could take the buy or sell decision in advance, by estimating the future asset value of the portfolio with a high level of precision. In this project, we have built an efficient portfolio and to predict the future asset value by means of individual stock price prediction of the stocks in the portfolio. As part of building an efficient portfolio we have studied multiple portfolio optimization methods beginning with the Modern Portfolio theory. We have built the minimum variance portfolio and optimal risk portfolio for all the five chosen sectors by using past daily stock prices over the past five years as the training data, and have also conducted back testing to check the performance of the portfolio. A comparative study of minimum variance portfolio and optimal risk portfolio with equal weight portfolio is done by backtesting.

While deep neural networks achieve great performance on fitting the training distribution, the learned networks are prone to overfitting and are susceptible to adversarial attacks. In this regard, a number of mixup based augmentation methods have been recently proposed. However, these approaches mainly focus on creating previously unseen virtual examples and can sometimes provide misleading supervisory signal to the network. To this end, we propose Puzzle Mix, a mixup method for explicitly utilizing the saliency information and the underlying statistics of the natural examples. This leads to an interesting optimization problem alternating between the multi-label objective for optimal mixing mask and saliency discounted optimal transport objective. Our experiments show Puzzle Mix achieves the state of the art generalization and the adversarial robustness results compared to other mixup methods on CIFAR-100, Tiny-ImageNet, and ImageNet datasets. The source code is available at https://github.com/snu-mllab/PuzzleMix.

Recent advances in diffusion models have led to impressive image generation capabilities, but aligning these models with human preferences remains challenging. Reward-based fine-tuning using models trained on human feedback improves alignment but often harms diversity, producing less varied outputs. In this work, we address this trade-off with two contributions. First, we introduce combined generation, a novel sampling strategy that applies a reward-tuned diffusion model only in the later stages of the generation process, while preserving the base model for earlier steps. This approach mitigates early-stage overfitting and helps retain global structure and diversity. Second, we propose ImageReFL, a fine-tuning method that improves image diversity with minimal loss in quality by training on real images and incorporating multiple regularizers, including diffusion and ReFL losses. Our approach outperforms conventional reward tuning methods on standard quality and diversity metrics. A user study further confirms that our method better balances human preference alignment and visual diversity. The source code can be found at https://github.com/ControlGenAI/ImageReFL .

Code-mixing, the practice of switching between languages within a conversation, poses unique challenges for traditional NLP. Existing benchmarks are limited by their narrow language pairs and tasks, failing to adequately assess large language models' (LLMs) code-mixing abilities. Despite the recognized importance of code-mixing for multilingual users, research on LLMs in this context remains sparse. Additionally, current techniques for synthesizing code-mixed data are underdeveloped to generate code-mixing. In response, we introduce CodeMixBench, a comprehensive benchmark covering eight tasks, including three specific to LLMs and five traditional NLP tasks, and 18 languages across seven language families. We also propose a new method for generating large-scale synthetic code-mixed texts by combining word substitution with GPT-4 prompting. Our evaluation reveals consistent underperformance of LLMs on code-mixed datasets involving different language families. Enhancements in training data size, model scale, and few-shot learning could improve their performance. The code and dataset are available at https://github.com/Jeromeyluck/CodeMixBench.

Portfolio Selection is an important real-world financial task and has attracted extensive attention in artificial intelligence communities. This task, however, has two main difficulties: (i) the non-stationary price series and complex asset correlations make the learning of feature representation very hard; (ii) the practicality principle in financial markets requires controlling both transaction and risk costs. Most existing methods adopt handcraft features and/or consider no constraints for the costs, which may make them perform unsatisfactorily and fail to control both costs in practice. In this paper, we propose a cost-sensitive portfolio selection method with deep reinforcement learning. Specifically, a novel two-stream portfolio policy network is devised to extract both price series patterns and asset correlations, while a new cost-sensitive reward function is developed to maximize the accumulated return and constrain both costs via reinforcement learning. We theoretically analyze the near-optimality of the proposed reward, which shows that the growth rate of the policy regarding this reward function can approach the theoretical optimum. We also empirically evaluate the proposed method on real-world datasets. Promising results demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method in terms of profitability, cost-sensitivity and representation abilities.

Continual pre-training on small-scale task-specific data is an effective method for improving large language models in new target fields, yet it risks catastrophic forgetting of their original capabilities. A common solution is to re-weight training data mixtures from source and target fields on a domain space to achieve balanced performance. Previous domain reweighting strategies rely on manual designation with certain heuristics based on human intuition or empirical results. In this work, we prove that more general heuristics can be parameterized by proposing Data Mixing Agent, the first model-based, end-to-end framework that learns to re-weight domains. The agent learns generalizable heuristics through reinforcement learning on large quantities of data mixing trajectories with corresponding feedback from an evaluation environment. Experiments in continual pre-training on math reasoning show that Data Mixing Agent outperforms strong baselines in achieving balanced performance across source and target field benchmarks. Furthermore, it generalizes well across unseen source fields, target models, and domain spaces without retraining. Direct application to the code generation field also indicates its adaptability across target domains. Further analysis showcases the agents' well-aligned heuristics with human intuitions and their efficiency in achieving superior model performance with less source-field data.

This paper introduces DeepUnifiedMom, a deep learning framework that enhances portfolio management through a multi-task learning approach and a multi-gate mixture of experts. The essence of DeepUnifiedMom lies in its ability to create unified momentum portfolios that incorporate the dynamics of time series momentum across a spectrum of time frames, a feature often missing in traditional momentum strategies. Our comprehensive backtesting, encompassing diverse asset classes such as equity indexes, fixed income, foreign exchange, and commodities, demonstrates that DeepUnifiedMom consistently outperforms benchmark models, even after factoring in transaction costs. This superior performance underscores DeepUnifiedMom's capability to capture the full spectrum of momentum opportunities within financial markets. The findings highlight DeepUnifiedMom as an effective tool for practitioners looking to exploit the entire range of momentum opportunities. It offers a compelling solution for improving risk-adjusted returns and is a valuable strategy for navigating the complexities of portfolio management.

This paper presents a comparative analysis of the performances of three portfolio optimization approaches. Three approaches of portfolio optimization that are considered in this work are the mean-variance portfolio (MVP), hierarchical risk parity (HRP) portfolio, and reinforcement learning-based portfolio. The portfolios are trained and tested over several stock data and their performances are compared on their annual returns, annual risks, and Sharpe ratios. In the reinforcement learning-based portfolio design approach, the deep Q learning technique has been utilized. Due to the large number of possible states, the construction of the Q-table is done using a deep neural network. The historical prices of the 50 premier stocks from the Indian stock market, known as the NIFTY50 stocks, and several stocks from 10 important sectors of the Indian stock market are used to create the environment for training the agent.

We propose a novel approach for analysis of the composition of an equity mutual fund based on the time series decomposition of the price movements of the individual stocks of the fund. The proposed scheme can be applied to check whether the style proclaimed for a mutual fund actually matches with the fund composition. We have applied our proposed framework on eight well known mutual funds of varying styles in the Indian financial market to check the consistency between their fund style and actual fund composition, and have obtained extensive results from our experiments. A detailed analysis of the results has shown that while in majority of the cases the actual allocations of funds are consistent with the corresponding fund styles, there have been some notable deviations too.

Portfolio optimization has been an area of research that has attracted a lot of attention from researchers and financial analysts. Designing an optimum portfolio is a complex task since it not only involves accurate forecasting of future stock returns and risks but also needs to optimize them. This paper presents a systematic approach to portfolio optimization using two approaches, the hierarchical risk parity algorithm and the Eigen portfolio on seven sectors of the Indian stock market. The portfolios are built following the two approaches to historical stock prices from Jan 1, 2016, to Dec 31, 2020. The portfolio performances are evaluated on the test data from Jan 1, 2021, to Nov 1, 2021. The backtesting results of the portfolios indicate that the performance of the HRP portfolio is superior to that of its Eigen counterpart on both training and test data for the majority of the sectors studied.

The use of synthetic data has played a critical role in recent state-of-art breakthroughs. However, overly relying on a single oracle teacher model to generate data has been shown to lead to model collapse and invite propagation of biases. These limitations are particularly evident in multilingual settings, where the absence of a universally effective teacher model that excels across all languages presents significant challenges. In this work, we address these extreme difference by introducing "multilingual arbitrage", which capitalizes on performance variations between multiple models for a given language. To do so, we strategically route samples through a diverse pool of models, each with unique strengths in different languages. Across exhaustive experiments on state-of-art models, our work suggests that arbitrage techniques allow for spectacular gains in performance that far outperform relying on a single teacher. In particular, compared to the best single teacher, we observe gains of up to 56.5% improvement in win rates averaged across all languages when switching to multilingual arbitrage. We observe the most significant gains for the least resourced languages in our pool.

Portfolio design and optimization have been always an area of research that has attracted a lot of attention from researchers from the finance domain. Designing an optimum portfolio is a complex task since it involves accurate forecasting of future stock returns and risks and making a suitable tradeoff between them. This paper proposes a systematic approach to designing portfolios using two algorithms, the critical line algorithm, and the hierarchical risk parity algorithm on eight sectors of the Indian stock market. While the portfolios are designed using the stock price data from Jan 1, 2016, to Dec 31, 2020, they are tested on the data from Jan 1, 2021, to Aug 26, 2021. The backtesting results of the portfolios indicate while the performance of the CLA algorithm is superior on the training data, the HRP algorithm has outperformed the CLA algorithm on the test data.

Public large-scale text-to-image diffusion models, such as Stable Diffusion, have gained significant attention from the community. These models can be easily customized for new concepts using low-rank adaptations (LoRAs). However, the utilization of multiple concept LoRAs to jointly support multiple customized concepts presents a challenge. We refer to this scenario as decentralized multi-concept customization, which involves single-client concept tuning and center-node concept fusion. In this paper, we propose a new framework called Mix-of-Show that addresses the challenges of decentralized multi-concept customization, including concept conflicts resulting from existing single-client LoRA tuning and identity loss during model fusion. Mix-of-Show adopts an embedding-decomposed LoRA (ED-LoRA) for single-client tuning and gradient fusion for the center node to preserve the in-domain essence of single concepts and support theoretically limitless concept fusion. Additionally, we introduce regionally controllable sampling, which extends spatially controllable sampling (e.g., ControlNet and T2I-Adaptor) to address attribute binding and missing object problems in multi-concept sampling. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Mix-of-Show is capable of composing multiple customized concepts with high fidelity, including characters, objects, and scenes.

The stock market offers a platform where people buy and sell shares of publicly listed companies. Generally, stock prices are quite volatile; hence predicting them is a daunting task. There is still much research going to develop more accuracy in stock price prediction. Portfolio construction refers to the allocation of different sector stocks optimally to achieve a maximum return by taking a minimum risk. A good portfolio can help investors earn maximum profit by taking a minimum risk. Beginning with Dow Jones Theory a lot of advancement has happened in the area of building efficient portfolios. In this project, we have tried to predict the future value of a few stocks from six important sectors of the Indian economy and also built a portfolio. As part of the project, our team has conducted a study of the performance of various Time series, machine learning, and deep learning models in stock price prediction on selected stocks from the chosen six important sectors of the economy. As part of building an efficient portfolio, we have studied multiple portfolio optimization theories beginning with the Modern Portfolio theory. We have built a minimum variance portfolio and optimal risk portfolio for all the six chosen sectors by using the daily stock prices over the past five years as training data and have also conducted back testing to check the performance of the portfolio. We look forward to continuing our study in the area of stock price prediction and asset allocation and consider this project as the first stepping stone.

We propose a structural default model for portfolio-wide valuation adjustments (xVAs) and represent it as a system of coupled backward stochastic differential equations. The framework is divided into four layers, each capturing a key component: (i) clean values, (ii) initial margin and Collateral Valuation Adjustment (ColVA), (iii) Credit/Debit Valuation Adjustments (CVA/DVA) together with Margin Valuation Adjustment (MVA), and (iv) Funding Valuation Adjustment (FVA). Because these layers depend on one another through collateral and default effects, a naive Monte Carlo approach would require deeply nested simulations, making the problem computationally intractable. To address this challenge, we use an iterative deep BSDE approach, handling each layer sequentially so that earlier outputs serve as inputs to the subsequent layers. Initial margin is computed via deep quantile regression to reflect margin requirements over the Margin Period of Risk. We also adopt a change-of-measure method that highlights rare but significant defaults of the bank or counterparty, ensuring that these events are accurately captured in the training process. We further extend Han and Long's (2020) a posteriori error analysis to BSDEs on bounded domains. Due to the random exit from the domain, we obtain an order of convergence of O(h^{1/4-epsilon}) rather than the usual O(h^{1/2}). Numerical experiments illustrate that this method drastically reduces computational demands and successfully scales to high-dimensional, non-symmetric portfolios. The results confirm its effectiveness and accuracy, offering a practical alternative to nested Monte Carlo simulations in multi-counterparty xVA analyses.

Risk parity, also known as equal risk contribution, has recently gained increasing attention as a portfolio allocation method. However, solving portfolio weights must resort to numerical methods as the analytic solution is not available. This study improves two existing iterative methods: the cyclical coordinate descent (CCD) and Newton methods. We enhance the CCD method by simplifying the formulation using a correlation matrix and imposing an additional rescaling step. We also suggest an improved initial guess inspired by the CCD method for the Newton method. Numerical experiments show that the improved CCD method performs the best and is approximately three times faster than the original CCD method, saving more than 40% of the iterations.

In the field of quantitative trading, it is common practice to transform raw historical stock data into indicative signals for the market trend. Such signals are called alpha factors. Alphas in formula forms are more interpretable and thus favored by practitioners concerned with risk. In practice, a set of formulaic alphas is often used together for better modeling precision, so we need to find synergistic formulaic alpha sets that work well together. However, most traditional alpha generators mine alphas one by one separately, overlooking the fact that the alphas would be combined later. In this paper, we propose a new alpha-mining framework that prioritizes mining a synergistic set of alphas, i.e., it directly uses the performance of the downstream combination model to optimize the alpha generator. Our framework also leverages the strong exploratory capabilities of reinforcement learning~(RL) to better explore the vast search space of formulaic alphas. The contribution to the combination models' performance is assigned to be the return used in the RL process, driving the alpha generator to find better alphas that improve upon the current set. Experimental evaluations on real-world stock market data demonstrate both the effectiveness and the efficiency of our framework for stock trend forecasting. The investment simulation results show that our framework is able to achieve higher returns compared to previous approaches.

Generating high-quality 3D assets from a given image is highly desirable in various applications such as AR/VR. Recent advances in single-image 3D generation explore feed-forward models that learn to infer the 3D model of an object without optimization. Though promising results have been achieved in single object generation, these methods often struggle to model complex 3D assets that inherently contain multiple objects. In this work, we present ComboVerse, a 3D generation framework that produces high-quality 3D assets with complex compositions by learning to combine multiple models. 1) We first perform an in-depth analysis of this ``multi-object gap'' from both model and data perspectives. 2) Next, with reconstructed 3D models of different objects, we seek to adjust their sizes, rotation angles, and locations to create a 3D asset that matches the given image. 3) To automate this process, we apply spatially-aware score distillation sampling (SSDS) from pretrained diffusion models to guide the positioning of objects. Our proposed framework emphasizes spatial alignment of objects, compared with standard score distillation sampling, and thus achieves more accurate results. Extensive experiments validate ComboVerse achieves clear improvements over existing methods in generating compositional 3D assets.

In this article, we consider the problem of a bank's loan portfolio in the context of liquidity risk, while allowing for the limited liability protection enjoyed by the bank. Accordingly, we construct a novel loan portfolio model with limited liability, while maintaining a threshold level of haircut in the portfolio. For the constructed three-time step loan portfolio, at the initial time, the bank raises capital via debt and equity, investing the same in several classes of loans, while at the final time, the bank either meets its liabilities or becomes insolvent. At the intermediate time step, a fraction of the deposits are withdrawn, resulting in liquidation of some of the bank's assets. The liquidated portfolio is designed with the goal of minimizing the liquidation cost. Our theoretical results show that model with the haircut constraint leads to lesser liquidity risk, as compared to the scenario of no haircut constraint being imposed. Finally, we present numerical results to illustrate the theoretical results which were obtained.

Despite the promise of Mixture of Experts (MoE) models in increasing parameter counts of Transformer models while maintaining training and inference costs, their application carries notable drawbacks. The key strategy of these models is to, for each processed token, activate at most a few experts - subsets of an extensive feed-forward layer. But this approach is not without its challenges. The operation of matching experts and tokens is discrete, which makes MoE models prone to issues like training instability and uneven expert utilization. Existing techniques designed to address these concerns, such as auxiliary losses or balance-aware matching, result either in lower model performance or are more difficult to train. In response to these issues, we propose Mixture of Tokens, a fully-differentiable model that retains the benefits of MoE architectures while avoiding the aforementioned difficulties. Rather than routing tokens to experts, this approach mixes tokens from different examples prior to feeding them to experts, enabling the model to learn from all token-expert combinations. Importantly, this mixing can be disabled to avoid mixing of different sequences during inference. Crucially, this method is fully compatible with both masked and causal Large Language Model training and inference.

Portfolio optimization has been a broad and intense area of interest for quantitative and statistical finance researchers and financial analysts. It is a challenging task to design a portfolio of stocks to arrive at the optimized values of the return and risk. This paper presents an algorithmic approach for designing optimum risk and eigen portfolios for five thematic sectors of the NSE of India. The prices of the stocks are extracted from the web from Jan 1, 2016, to Dec 31, 2020. Optimum risk and eigen portfolios for each sector are designed based on ten critical stocks from the sector. An LSTM model is designed for predicting future stock prices. Seven months after the portfolios were formed, on Aug 3, 2021, the actual returns of the portfolios are compared with the LSTM-predicted returns. The predicted and the actual returns indicate a very high-level accuracy of the LSTM model.

We address the task of multi-view image editing from sparse input views, where the inputs can be seen as a mix of images capturing the scene from different viewpoints. The goal is to modify the scene according to a textual instruction while preserving consistency across all views. Existing methods, based on per-scene neural fields or temporal attention mechanisms, struggle in this setting, often producing artifacts and incoherent edits. We propose InstructMix2Mix (I-Mix2Mix), a framework that distills the editing capabilities of a 2D diffusion model into a pretrained multi-view diffusion model, leveraging its data-driven 3D prior for cross-view consistency. A key contribution is replacing the conventional neural field consolidator in Score Distillation Sampling (SDS) with a multi-view diffusion student, which requires novel adaptations: incremental student updates across timesteps, a specialized teacher noise scheduler to prevent degeneration, and an attention modification that enhances cross-view coherence without additional cost. Experiments demonstrate that I-Mix2Mix significantly improves multi-view consistency while maintaining high per-frame edit quality.

User data confidentiality protection is becoming a rising challenge in the present deep learning research. Without access to data, conventional data-driven model compression faces a higher risk of performance degradation. Recently, some works propose to generate images from a specific pretrained model to serve as training data. However, the inversion process only utilizes biased feature statistics stored in one model and is from low-dimension to high-dimension. As a consequence, it inevitably encounters the difficulties of generalizability and inexact inversion, which leads to unsatisfactory performance. To address these problems, we propose MixMix based on two simple yet effective techniques: (1) Feature Mixing: utilizes various models to construct a universal feature space for generalized inversion; (2) Data Mixing: mixes the synthesized images and labels to generate exact label information. We prove the effectiveness of MixMix from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. Extensive experiments show that MixMix outperforms existing methods on the mainstream compression tasks, including quantization, knowledge distillation, and pruning. Specifically, MixMix achieves up to 4% and 20% accuracy uplift on quantization and pruning, respectively, compared to existing data-free compression work.

This paper proposes a novel approach to hedging portfolios of risky assets when financial markets are affected by financial turmoils. We introduce a completely novel approach to diversification activity not on the level of single assets but on the level of ensemble algorithmic investment strategies (AIS) built based on the prices of these assets. We employ four types of diverse theoretical models (LSTM - Long Short-Term Memory, ARIMA-GARCH - Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average - Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity, momentum, and contrarian) to generate price forecasts, which are then used to produce investment signals in single and complex AIS. In such a way, we are able to verify the diversification potential of different types of investment strategies consisting of various assets (energy commodities, precious metals, cryptocurrencies, or soft commodities) in hedging ensemble AIS built for equity indices (S&P 500 index). Empirical data used in this study cover the period between 2004 and 2022. Our main conclusion is that LSTM-based strategies outperform the other models and that the best diversifier for the AIS built for the S&P 500 index is the AIS built for Bitcoin. Finally, we test the LSTM model for a higher frequency of data (1 hour). We conclude that it outperforms the results obtained using daily data.

Self-tuning algorithms that adapt the learning process online encourage more effective and robust learning. Among all the methods available, meta-gradients have emerged as a promising approach. They leverage the differentiability of the learning rule with respect to some hyper-parameters to adapt them in an online fashion. Although meta-gradients can be accumulated over multiple learning steps to avoid myopic updates, this is rarely used in practice. In this work, we demonstrate that whilst multi-step meta-gradients do provide a better learning signal in expectation, this comes at the cost of a significant increase in variance, hindering performance. In the light of this analysis, we introduce a novel method mixing multiple inner steps that enjoys a more accurate and robust meta-gradient signal, essentially trading off bias and variance in meta-gradient estimation. When applied to the Snake game, the mixing meta-gradient algorithm can cut the variance by a factor of 3 while achieving similar or higher performance.

We propose a reinforcement learning (RL) framework that leverages multimodal data including historical stock prices, sentiment analysis, and topic embeddings from news articles, to optimize trading strategies for SP100 stocks. Building upon recent advancements in financial reinforcement learning, we aim to enhance the state space representation by integrating financial sentiment data from SEC filings and news headlines and refining the reward function to better align with portfolio performance metrics. Our methodology includes deep reinforcement learning with state tensors comprising price data, sentiment scores, and news embeddings, processed through advanced feature extraction models like CNNs and RNNs. By benchmarking against traditional portfolio optimization techniques and advanced strategies, we demonstrate the efficacy of our approach in delivering superior portfolio performance. Empirical results showcase the potential of our agent to outperform standard benchmarks, especially when utilizing combined data sources under profit-based reward functions.

Deep neural networks tend to memorize noisy labels, severely degrading their generalization performance. Although Mixup has demonstrated effectiveness in improving generalization and robustness, existing Mixup-based methods typically perform indiscriminate mixing without principled guidance on sample selection and mixing strategy, inadvertently propagating noisy supervision. To overcome these limitations, we propose SelectMix, a confidence-guided mixing framework explicitly tailored for noisy labels. SelectMix first identifies potentially noisy or ambiguous samples through confidence based mismatch analysis using K-fold cross-validation, then selectively blends identified uncertain samples with confidently predicted peers from their potential classes. Furthermore, SelectMix employs soft labels derived from all classes involved in the mixing process, ensuring the labels accurately represent the composition of the mixed samples, thus aligning supervision signals closely with the actual mixed inputs. Through extensive theoretical analysis and empirical evaluations on multiple synthetic (MNIST, Fashion-MNIST, CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100) and real-world benchmark datasets (CIFAR-N, MNIST and Clothing1M), we demonstrate that SelectMix consistently outperforms strong baseline methods, validating its effectiveness and robustness in learning with noisy labels.

This paper addresses the critical disconnect between prediction and decision quality in portfolio optimization by integrating Large Language Models (LLMs) with decision-focused learning. We demonstrate both theoretically and empirically that minimizing the prediction error alone leads to suboptimal portfolio decisions. We aim to exploit the representational power of LLMs for investment decisions. An attention mechanism processes asset relationships, temporal dependencies, and macro variables, which are then directly integrated into a portfolio optimization layer. This enables the model to capture complex market dynamics and align predictions with the decision objectives. Extensive experiments on S\&P100 and DOW30 datasets show that our model consistently outperforms state-of-the-art deep learning models. In addition, gradient-based analyses show that our model prioritizes the assets most crucial to decision making, thus mitigating the effects of prediction errors on portfolio performance. These findings underscore the value of integrating decision objectives into predictions for more robust and context-aware portfolio management.

Diffusion methods have been proven to be very effective to generate images while conditioning on a text prompt. However, and although the quality of the generated images is unprecedented, these methods seem to struggle when trying to generate specific image compositions. In this paper we present Mixture of Diffusers, an algorithm that builds over existing diffusion models to provide a more detailed control over composition. By harmonizing several diffusion processes acting on different regions of a canvas, it allows generating larger images, where the location of each object and style is controlled by a separate diffusion process.

We present Diffusion Model Patching (DMP), a simple method to boost the performance of pre-trained diffusion models that have already reached convergence, with a negligible increase in parameters. DMP inserts a small, learnable set of prompts into the model's input space while keeping the original model frozen. The effectiveness of DMP is not merely due to the addition of parameters but stems from its dynamic gating mechanism, which selects and combines a subset of learnable prompts at every step of the generative process (e.g., reverse denoising steps). This strategy, which we term "mixture-of-prompts", enables the model to draw on the distinct expertise of each prompt, essentially "patching" the model's functionality at every step with minimal yet specialized parameters. Uniquely, DMP enhances the model by further training on the same dataset on which it was originally trained, even in a scenario where significant improvements are typically not expected due to model convergence. Experiments show that DMP significantly enhances the converged FID of DiT-L/2 on FFHQ 256x256 by 10.38%, achieved with only a 1.43% parameter increase and 50K additional training iterations.

This chapter presents a comparative study of the three portfolio optimization methods, MVP, HRP, and HERC, on the Indian stock market, particularly focusing on the stocks chosen from 15 sectors listed on the National Stock Exchange of India. The top stocks of each cluster are identified based on their free-float market capitalization from the report of the NSE published on July 1, 2022 (NSE Website). For each sector, three portfolios are designed on stock prices from July 1, 2019, to June 30, 2022, following three portfolio optimization approaches. The portfolios are tested over the period from July 1, 2022, to June 30, 2023. For the evaluation of the performances of the portfolios, three metrics are used. These three metrics are cumulative returns, annual volatilities, and Sharpe ratios. For each sector, the portfolios that yield the highest cumulative return, the lowest volatility, and the maximum Sharpe Ratio over the training and the test periods are identified.

Diffusion models have demonstrated impressive performance in text-to-image generation. They utilize a text encoder and cross-attention blocks to infuse textual information into images at a pixel level. However, their capability to generate images with text containing multiple objects is still restricted. Previous works identify the problem of information mixing in the CLIP text encoder and introduce the T5 text encoder or incorporate strong prior knowledge to assist with the alignment. We find that mixing problems also occur on the image side and in the cross-attention blocks. The noisy images can cause different objects to appear similar, and the cross-attention blocks inject information at a pixel level, leading to leakage of global object understanding and resulting in object mixing. In this paper, we introduce Detector Guidance (DG), which integrates a latent object detection model to separate different objects during the generation process. DG first performs latent object detection on cross-attention maps (CAMs) to obtain object information. Based on this information, DG then masks conflicting prompts and enhances related prompts by manipulating the following CAMs. We evaluate the effectiveness of DG using Stable Diffusion on COCO, CC, and a novel multi-related object benchmark, MRO. Human evaluations demonstrate that DG provides an 8-22\% advantage in preventing the amalgamation of conflicting concepts and ensuring that each object possesses its unique region without any human involvement and additional iterations. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/luping-liu/Detector-Guidance.

We introduce Filter Like You Test (FLYT), a method for curating large-scale vision-language datasets that learns the usefulness of each data point as a pretraining example. FLYT trains a scoring model that learns to weigh each example using gradient signals from downstream tasks training sets. Using the same training methodology, we develop Mixing-FLYT (M-FLYT), which takes the per-example scores generated by different scoring methods and learns to unify them into a single score. Our training methodology naturally produces a distribution over the training examples, which we leverage through Soft Cap Sampling (SCS), a strategy for obtaining a filtered pretraining dataset from per-example probabilities that samples examples while preventing over-representation through a repetition penalty. Using all three methods, we achieve 40.1% ImageNet zero-shot accuracy on the DataComp medium scale filtering benchmark, a 1.9% absolute accuracy increase over all previous results and a 5.5% increase over results that -- like us -- use only public resources.

Inverse design, where we seek to design input variables in order to optimize an underlying objective function, is an important problem that arises across fields such as mechanical engineering to aerospace engineering. Inverse design is typically formulated as an optimization problem, with recent works leveraging optimization across learned dynamics models. However, as models are optimized they tend to fall into adversarial modes, preventing effective sampling. We illustrate that by instead optimizing over the learned energy function captured by the diffusion model, we can avoid such adversarial examples and significantly improve design performance. We further illustrate how such a design system is compositional, enabling us to combine multiple different diffusion models representing subcomponents of our desired system to design systems with every specified component. In an N-body interaction task and a challenging 2D multi-airfoil design task, we demonstrate that by composing the learned diffusion model at test time, our method allows us to design initial states and boundary shapes that are more complex than those in the training data. Our method generalizes to more objects for N-body dataset and discovers formation flying to minimize drag in the multi-airfoil design task. Project website and code can be found at https://github.com/AI4Science-WestlakeU/cindm.

Diffusion models have achieved remarkable success in text-to-image generation, enabling the creation of high-quality images from text prompts or other modalities. However, existing methods for customizing these models are limited by handling multiple personalized subjects and the risk of overfitting. Moreover, their large number of parameters is inefficient for model storage. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to address these limitations in existing text-to-image diffusion models for personalization. Our method involves fine-tuning the singular values of the weight matrices, leading to a compact and efficient parameter space that reduces the risk of overfitting and language drifting. We also propose a Cut-Mix-Unmix data-augmentation technique to enhance the quality of multi-subject image generation and a simple text-based image editing framework. Our proposed SVDiff method has a significantly smaller model size compared to existing methods (approximately 2,200 times fewer parameters compared with vanilla DreamBooth), making it more practical for real-world applications.

We present MixtureVitae, an open-access pretraining corpus built to minimize legal risk while providing strong model performance. MixtureVitae follows a risk-mitigated sourcing strategy that combines public-domain and permissively licensed text (e.g., CC-BY/Apache) with carefully justified low-risk additions (e.g., government works and EU TDM-eligible sources), alongside targeted instruction, reasoning and synthetic data with documented provenance. We detail a transparent, multi-stage pipeline for license-aware filtering, safety and quality screening, and domain-aware mixing, and we release the dataset and curation recipes to support reproducible research. In controlled experiments using the open-sci-ref training protocol (fixed architectures at 130M/400M/1.3B/1.7B parameters; training budgets of 50B and 300B tokens), models trained on MixtureVitae consistently outperform other permissive datasets across a suite of standard benchmarks, and at the 1.7B/300B setting they surpass FineWeb-Edu and approach DCLM in the later stages of training. Performance is particularly strong on math/code and competitive on QA tasks. These results demonstrate that permissive-first, risk-mitigated data provides a practical and legally mitigated foundation for training capable LLMs, reducing reliance on indiscriminate web scraping without sacrificing competitiveness. Code: https://github.com/ontocord/mixturevitae

Instruction Tuning involves finetuning a language model on a collection of instruction-formatted datasets in order to enhance the generalizability of the model to unseen tasks. Studies have shown the importance of balancing different task proportions during finetuning, but finding the right balance remains challenging. Unfortunately, there's currently no systematic method beyond manual tuning or relying on practitioners' intuition. In this paper, we introduce SMART (Submodular data Mixture strAtegy for instRuction Tuning) - a novel data mixture strategy which makes use of a submodular function to assign importance scores to tasks which are then used to determine the mixture weights. Given a fine-tuning budget, SMART redistributes the budget among tasks and selects non-redundant samples from each task. Experimental results demonstrate that SMART significantly outperforms traditional methods such as examples proportional mixing and equal mixing. Furthermore, SMART facilitates the creation of data mixtures based on a few representative subsets of tasks alone and through task pruning analysis, we reveal that in a limited budget setting, allocating budget among a subset of representative tasks yields superior performance compared to distributing the budget among all tasks. The code for reproducing our results is open-sourced at https://github.com/kowndinya-renduchintala/SMART.

Online Class-Incremental (OCI) learning has sparked new approaches to expand the previously trained model knowledge from sequentially arriving data streams with new classes. Unfortunately, OCI learning can suffer from catastrophic forgetting (CF) as the decision boundaries for old classes can become inaccurate when perturbated by new ones. Existing literature have applied the data augmentation (DA) to alleviate the model forgetting, while the role of DA in OCI has not been well understood so far. In this paper, we theoretically show that augmented samples with lower correlation to the original data are more effective in preventing forgetting. However, aggressive augmentation may also reduce the consistency between data and corresponding labels, which motivates us to exploit proper DA to boost the OCI performance and prevent the CF problem. We propose the Enhanced Mixup (EnMix) method that mixes the augmented samples and their labels simultaneously, which is shown to enhance the sample diversity while maintaining strong consistency with corresponding labels. Further, to solve the class imbalance problem, we design an Adaptive Mixup (AdpMix) method to calibrate the decision boundaries by mixing samples from both old and new classes and dynamically adjusting the label mixing ratio. Our approach is demonstrated to be effective on several benchmark datasets through extensive experiments, and it is shown to be compatible with other replay-based techniques.

This paper introduces a novel approach to financial risk analysis that does not rely on traditional price and market data, instead using market news to model assets as distributions over a metric space of risk factors. By representing asset returns as integrals over the scalar field of these risk factors, we derive the covariance structure between asset returns. Utilizing encoder-only language models to embed this news data, we explore the relationships between asset return distributions through the concept of Energy Distance, establishing connections between distributional differences and excess returns co-movements. This data-agnostic approach provides new insights into portfolio diversification, risk management, and the construction of hedging strategies. Our findings have significant implications for both theoretical finance and practical risk management, offering a more robust framework for modelling complex financial systems without depending on conventional market data.

Existing pretraining data mixing methods for large language models (LLMs) typically follow a domain-wise methodology, a top-down process that first determines domain weights and then performs uniform data sampling across each domain. However, these approaches neglect significant inter-domain overlaps and commonalities, failing to control the global diversity of the constructed training dataset. Further, uniform sampling within domains ignores fine-grained sample-specific features, potentially leading to suboptimal data distribution. To address these shortcomings, we propose a novel sample-wise data mixture approach based on a bottom-up paradigm. This method performs global cross-domain sampling by systematically evaluating the quality and diversity of each sample, thereby dynamically determining the optimal domain distribution. Comprehensive experiments across multiple downstream tasks and perplexity assessments demonstrate that SampleMix surpasses existing domain-based methods. Meanwhile, SampleMix requires 1.4x to 2.1x training steps to achieves the baselines' performance, highlighting the substantial potential of SampleMix to optimize pre-training data.

With the rapid progress of video generation, demand for customized video editing is surging, where subject swapping constitutes a key component yet remains under-explored. Prevailing swapping approaches either specialize in narrow domains--such as human-body animation or hand-object interaction--or rely on some indirect editing paradigm or ambiguous text prompts that compromise final fidelity. In this paper, we propose DreamSwapV, a mask-guided, subject-agnostic, end-to-end framework that swaps any subject in any video for customization with a user-specified mask and reference image. To inject fine-grained guidance, we introduce multiple conditions and a dedicated condition fusion module that integrates them efficiently. In addition, an adaptive mask strategy is designed to accommodate subjects of varying scales and attributes, further improving interactions between the swapped subject and its surrounding context. Through our elaborate two-phase dataset construction and training scheme, our DreamSwapV outperforms existing methods, as validated by comprehensive experiments on VBench indicators and our first introduced DreamSwapV-Benchmark.

Code-mixing is a well-studied linguistic phenomenon when two or more languages are mixed in text or speech. Several datasets have been build with the goal of training computational models for code-mixing. Although it is very common to observe code-mixing with multiple languages, most datasets available contain code-mixed between only two languages. In this paper, we introduce SentMix-3L, a novel dataset for sentiment analysis containing code-mixed data between three languages Bangla, English, and Hindi. We carry out a comprehensive evaluation using SentMix-3L. We show that zero-shot prompting with GPT-3.5 outperforms all transformer-based models on SentMix-3L.

Prompt-based learning has shown considerable promise in reformulating various downstream tasks as cloze problems by combining original input with a predetermined template. This approach demonstrates its effectiveness, especially in few-shot learning scenarios, where the model is trained on a scarce amount of data. Despite its successes, the limited templates and text in few-shot prompt-based learning scenarios leave significant room for performance improvement. Moreover, existing methods sometimes resort to model ensembles, which, while effective, could potentially hamper model efficiency due to increased computational demands. To address these issues, we introduce MixPro, an augmentation method designed to augment both the vanilla input text and the templates. We implement this through the token-level, the sentence-level, and the template-level Mixup strategies. The experimental results on five few-shot datasets show that MixPro outperforms other augmentation baselines, improving model performance by an average of 5.08% compared to before augmentation.

Code-mixing is a well-studied linguistic phenomenon when two or more languages are mixed in text or speech. Several works have been conducted on building datasets and performing downstream NLP tasks on code-mixed data. Although it is not uncommon to observe code-mixing of three or more languages, most available datasets in this domain contain code-mixed data from only two languages. In this paper, we introduce OffMix-3L, a novel offensive language identification dataset containing code-mixed data from three different languages. We experiment with several models on this dataset and observe that BanglishBERT outperforms other transformer-based models and GPT-3.5.

Despite significant advancements in customizing text-to-image and video generation models, generating images and videos that effectively integrate multiple personalized concepts remains a challenging task. To address this, we present TweedieMix, a novel method for composing customized diffusion models during the inference phase. By analyzing the properties of reverse diffusion sampling, our approach divides the sampling process into two stages. During the initial steps, we apply a multiple object-aware sampling technique to ensure the inclusion of the desired target objects. In the later steps, we blend the appearances of the custom concepts in the de-noised image space using Tweedie's formula. Our results demonstrate that TweedieMix can generate multiple personalized concepts with higher fidelity than existing methods. Moreover, our framework can be effortlessly extended to image-to-video diffusion models, enabling the generation of videos that feature multiple personalized concepts. Results and source code are in our anonymous project page.

Stock market prediction has remained an extremely challenging problem for many decades owing to its inherent high volatility and low information noisy ratio. Existing solutions based on machine learning or deep learning demonstrate superior performance by employing a single model trained on the entire stock dataset to generate predictions across all types of stocks. However, due to the significant variations in stock styles and market trends, a single end-to-end model struggles to fully capture the differences in these stylized stock features, leading to relatively inaccurate predictions for all types of stocks. In this paper, we present MIGA, a novel Mixture of Expert with Group Aggregation framework designed to generate specialized predictions for stocks with different styles by dynamically switching between distinct style experts. To promote collaboration among different experts in MIGA, we propose a novel inner group attention architecture, enabling experts within the same group to share information and thereby enhancing the overall performance of all experts. As a result, MIGA significantly outperforms other end-to-end models on three Chinese Stock Index benchmarks including CSI300, CSI500, and CSI1000. Notably, MIGA-Conv reaches 24 % excess annual return on CSI300 benchmark, surpassing the previous state-of-the-art model by 8% absolute. Furthermore, we conduct a comprehensive analysis of mixture of experts for stock market prediction, providing valuable insights for future research.

While generative models produce high-quality images of concepts learned from a large-scale database, a user often wishes to synthesize instantiations of their own concepts (for example, their family, pets, or items). Can we teach a model to quickly acquire a new concept, given a few examples? Furthermore, can we compose multiple new concepts together? We propose Custom Diffusion, an efficient method for augmenting existing text-to-image models. We find that only optimizing a few parameters in the text-to-image conditioning mechanism is sufficiently powerful to represent new concepts while enabling fast tuning (~6 minutes). Additionally, we can jointly train for multiple concepts or combine multiple fine-tuned models into one via closed-form constrained optimization. Our fine-tuned model generates variations of multiple, new concepts and seamlessly composes them with existing concepts in novel settings. Our method outperforms several baselines and concurrent works, regarding both qualitative and quantitative evaluations, while being memory and computationally efficient.

Recent inversion methods have shown that real images can be inverted into StyleGAN's latent space and numerous edits can be achieved on those images thanks to the semantically rich feature representations of well-trained GAN models. However, extensive research has also shown that image inversion is challenging due to the trade-off between high-fidelity reconstruction and editability. In this paper, we tackle an even more difficult task, inverting erased images into GAN's latent space for realistic inpaintings and editings. Furthermore, by augmenting inverted latent codes with different latent samples, we achieve diverse inpaintings. Specifically, we propose to learn an encoder and mixing network to combine encoded features from erased images with StyleGAN's mapped features from random samples. To encourage the mixing network to utilize both inputs, we train the networks with generated data via a novel set-up. We also utilize higher-rate features to prevent color inconsistencies between the inpainted and unerased parts. We run extensive experiments and compare our method with state-of-the-art inversion and inpainting methods. Qualitative metrics and visual comparisons show significant improvements.

Given a small number of images of a subject, personalized image generation techniques can fine-tune large pre-trained text-to-image diffusion models to generate images of the subject in novel contexts, conditioned on text prompts. In doing so, a trade-off is made between prompt fidelity, subject fidelity and diversity. As the pre-trained model is fine-tuned, earlier checkpoints synthesize images with low subject fidelity but high prompt fidelity and diversity. In contrast, later checkpoints generate images with low prompt fidelity and diversity but high subject fidelity. This inherent trade-off limits the prompt fidelity, subject fidelity and diversity of generated images. In this work, we propose DreamBlend to combine the prompt fidelity from earlier checkpoints and the subject fidelity from later checkpoints during inference. We perform a cross attention guided image synthesis from a later checkpoint, guided by an image generated by an earlier checkpoint, for the same prompt. This enables generation of images with better subject fidelity, prompt fidelity and diversity on challenging prompts, outperforming state-of-the-art fine-tuning methods.

This study presents an analytical approach to sector rotation, leveraging both factor models and fundamental metrics. We initiate with a systematic classification of sectors, followed by an empirical investigation into their returns. Through factor analysis, the paper underscores the significance of momentum and short-term reversion in dictating sectoral shifts. A subsequent in-depth fundamental analysis evaluates metrics such as PE, PB, EV-to-EBITDA, Dividend Yield, among others. Our primary contribution lies in developing a predictive framework based on these fundamental indicators. The constructed models, post rigorous training, exhibit noteworthy predictive capabilities. The findings furnish a nuanced understanding of sector rotation strategies, with implications for asset management and portfolio construction in the financial domain.

We present TokenVerse -- a method for multi-concept personalization, leveraging a pre-trained text-to-image diffusion model. Our framework can disentangle complex visual elements and attributes from as little as a single image, while enabling seamless plug-and-play generation of combinations of concepts extracted from multiple images. As opposed to existing works, TokenVerse can handle multiple images with multiple concepts each, and supports a wide-range of concepts, including objects, accessories, materials, pose, and lighting. Our work exploits a DiT-based text-to-image model, in which the input text affects the generation through both attention and modulation (shift and scale). We observe that the modulation space is semantic and enables localized control over complex concepts. Building on this insight, we devise an optimization-based framework that takes as input an image and a text description, and finds for each word a distinct direction in the modulation space. These directions can then be used to generate new images that combine the learned concepts in a desired configuration. We demonstrate the effectiveness of TokenVerse in challenging personalization settings, and showcase its advantages over existing methods. project's webpage in https://token-verse.github.io/

While prior research has proposed a plethora of methods that build neural classifiers robust against adversarial robustness, practitioners are still reluctant to adopt them due to their unacceptably severe clean accuracy penalties. This paper significantly alleviates this accuracy-robustness trade-off by mixing the output probabilities of a standard classifier and a robust classifier, where the standard network is optimized for clean accuracy and is not robust in general. We show that the robust base classifier's confidence difference for correct and incorrect examples is the key to this improvement. In addition to providing intuitions and empirical evidence, we theoretically certify the robustness of the mixed classifier under realistic assumptions. Furthermore, we adapt an adversarial input detector into a mixing network that adaptively adjusts the mixture of the two base models, further reducing the accuracy penalty of achieving robustness. The proposed flexible method, termed "adaptive smoothing", can work in conjunction with existing or even future methods that improve clean accuracy, robustness, or adversary detection. Our empirical evaluation considers strong attack methods, including AutoAttack and adaptive attack. On the CIFAR-100 dataset, our method achieves an 85.21% clean accuracy while maintaining a 38.72% ell_infty-AutoAttacked (epsilon = 8/255) accuracy, becoming the second most robust method on the RobustBench CIFAR-100 benchmark as of submission, while improving the clean accuracy by ten percentage points compared with all listed models. The code that implements our method is available at https://github.com/Bai-YT/AdaptiveSmoothing.

Model fusing has always been an important topic, especially in an era where large language models (LLM) and multi-modal language models (MLM) with different architectures, parameter sizes and training pipelines, are being created all the time. In this work, we propose a post-hoc framework, aiming at fusing heterogeneous models off-the-shell, which we call likelihood composition, and the basic idea is to compose multiple models' likelihood distribution when doing a multi-choice visual-question-answering task. Here the core concept, likelihood, is actually the log-probability of the candidate answer. In likelihood composition, we introduce some basic operations: debias, highlight, majority-vote and ensemble. By combining (composing) these basic elements, we get the mixed composition methods: mix-composition. Through conducting comprehensive experiments on 9 VQA datasets and 10 MLMs, we prove the effectiveness of mix-composition compared with simple ensemble or majority-vote methods. In this framework, people can propose new basic composition methods and combine them to get the new mixed composition methods. We hope our proposed likelihood composition can provide a new perspective of fusing heterogeneous models and inspire the exploration under this framework.

Metric learning involves learning a discriminative representation such that embeddings of similar classes are encouraged to be close, while embeddings of dissimilar classes are pushed far apart. State-of-the-art methods focus mostly on sophisticated loss functions or mining strategies. On the one hand, metric learning losses consider two or more examples at a time. On the other hand, modern data augmentation methods for classification consider two or more examples at a time. The combination of the two ideas is under-studied. In this work, we aim to bridge this gap and improve representations using mixup, which is a powerful data augmentation approach interpolating two or more examples and corresponding target labels at a time. This task is challenging because unlike classification, the loss functions used in metric learning are not additive over examples, so the idea of interpolating target labels is not straightforward. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to investigate mixing both examples and target labels for deep metric learning. We develop a generalized formulation that encompasses existing metric learning loss functions and modify it to accommodate for mixup, introducing Metric Mix, or Metrix. We also introduce a new metric - utilization, to demonstrate that by mixing examples during training, we are exploring areas of the embedding space beyond the training classes, thereby improving representations. To validate the effect of improved representations, we show that mixing inputs, intermediate representations or embeddings along with target labels significantly outperforms state-of-the-art metric learning methods on four benchmark deep metric learning datasets.

We resolve the open question regarding the sample complexity of policy learning for maximizing the long-run average reward associated with a uniformly ergodic Markov decision process (MDP), assuming a generative model. In this context, the existing literature provides a sample complexity upper bound of widetilde O(|S||A|t_{mix}^2 epsilon^{-2}) and a lower bound of Omega(|S||A|t_{mix} epsilon^{-2}). In these expressions, |S| and |A| denote the cardinalities of the state and action spaces respectively, t_{mix} serves as a uniform upper limit for the total variation mixing times, and epsilon signifies the error tolerance. Therefore, a notable gap of t_{mix} still remains to be bridged. Our primary contribution is the development of an estimator for the optimal policy of average reward MDPs with a sample complexity of widetilde O(|S||A|t_{mix}epsilon^{-2}). This marks the first algorithm and analysis to reach the literature's lower bound. Our new algorithm draws inspiration from ideas in Li et al. (2020), Jin and Sidford (2021), and Wang et al. (2023). Additionally, we conduct numerical experiments to validate our theoretical findings.

With LLMs shifting their role from statistical modeling of language to serving as general-purpose AI agents, how should LLM evaluations change? Arguably, a key ability of an AI agent is to flexibly combine, as needed, the basic skills it has learned. The capability to combine skills plays an important role in (human) pedagogy and also in a paper on emergence phenomena (Arora & Goyal, 2023). This work introduces Skill-Mix, a new evaluation to measure ability to combine skills. Using a list of N skills the evaluator repeatedly picks random subsets of k skills and asks the LLM to produce text combining that subset of skills. Since the number of subsets grows like N^k, for even modest k this evaluation will, with high probability, require the LLM to produce text significantly different from any text in the training set. The paper develops a methodology for (a) designing and administering such an evaluation, and (b) automatic grading (plus spot-checking by humans) of the results using GPT-4 as well as the open LLaMA-2 70B model. Administering a version of to popular chatbots gave results that, while generally in line with prior expectations, contained surprises. Sizeable differences exist among model capabilities that are not captured by their ranking on popular LLM leaderboards ("cramming for the leaderboard"). Furthermore, simple probability calculations indicate that GPT-4's reasonable performance on k=5 is suggestive of going beyond "stochastic parrot" behavior (Bender et al., 2021), i.e., it combines skills in ways that it had not seen during training. We sketch how the methodology can lead to a Skill-Mix based eco-system of open evaluations for AI capabilities of future models.

Face swapping is a task that changes a facial identity of a given image to that of another person. In this work, we propose a novel face-swapping framework called Megapixel Facial Identity Manipulation (MFIM). The face-swapping model should achieve two goals. First, it should be able to generate a high-quality image. We argue that a model which is proficient in generating a megapixel image can achieve this goal. However, generating a megapixel image is generally difficult without careful model design. Therefore, our model exploits pretrained StyleGAN in the manner of GAN-inversion to effectively generate a megapixel image. Second, it should be able to effectively transform the identity of a given image. Specifically, it should be able to actively transform ID attributes (e.g., face shape and eyes) of a given image into those of another person, while preserving ID-irrelevant attributes (e.g., pose and expression). To achieve this goal, we exploit 3DMM that can capture various facial attributes. Specifically, we explicitly supervise our model to generate a face-swapped image with the desirable attributes using 3DMM. We show that our model achieves state-of-the-art performance through extensive experiments. Furthermore, we propose a new operation called ID mixing, which creates a new identity by semantically mixing the identities of several people. It allows the user to customize the new identity.

Data mixing augmentation has proved effective in training deep models. Recent methods mix labels mainly based on the mixture proportion of image pixels. As the main discriminative information of a fine-grained image usually resides in subtle regions, methods along this line are prone to heavy label noise in fine-grained recognition. We propose in this paper a novel scheme, termed as Semantically Proportional Mixing (SnapMix), which exploits class activation map (CAM) to lessen the label noise in augmenting fine-grained data. SnapMix generates the target label for a mixed image by estimating its intrinsic semantic composition, and allows for asymmetric mixing operations and ensures semantic correspondence between synthetic images and target labels. Experiments show that our method consistently outperforms existing mixed-based approaches on various datasets and under different network depths. Furthermore, by incorporating the mid-level features, the proposed SnapMix achieves top-level performance, demonstrating its potential to serve as a solid baseline for fine-grained recognition. Our code is available at https://github.com/Shaoli-Huang/SnapMix.git.

Reinforcement learning has demonstrated great potential for performing financial tasks. However, it faces two major challenges: policy instability and sampling bottlenecks. In this paper, we revisit ensemble methods with massively parallel simulations on graphics processing units (GPUs), significantly enhancing the computational efficiency and robustness of trained models in volatile financial markets. Our approach leverages the parallel processing capability of GPUs to significantly improve the sampling speed for training ensemble models. The ensemble models combine the strengths of component agents to improve the robustness of financial decision-making strategies. We conduct experiments in both stock and cryptocurrency trading tasks to evaluate the effectiveness of our approach. Massively parallel simulation on a single GPU improves the sampling speed by up to 1,746times using 2,048 parallel environments compared to a single environment. The ensemble models have high cumulative returns and outperform some individual agents, reducing maximum drawdown by up to 4.17% and improving the Sharpe ratio by up to 0.21. This paper describes trading tasks at ACM ICAIF FinRL Contests in 2023 and 2024.

Data mixing strategies have successfully reduced the costs involved in training language models. While promising, such methods suffer from two flaws. First, they rely on predetermined data domains (e.g., data sources, task types), which may fail to capture critical semantic nuances, leaving performance on the table. Second, these methods scale with the number of domains in a computationally prohibitive way. We address these challenges via R&B, a framework that re-partitions training data based on semantic similarity (Regroup) to create finer-grained domains, and efficiently optimizes the data composition (Balance) by leveraging a Gram matrix induced by domain gradients obtained throughout training. Unlike prior works, it removes the need for additional compute to obtain evaluation information such as losses or gradients. We analyze this technique under standard regularity conditions and provide theoretical insights that justify R&B's effectiveness compared to non-adaptive mixing approaches. Empirically, we demonstrate the effectiveness of R&B on five diverse datasets ranging from natural language to reasoning and multimodal tasks. With as little as 0.01% additional compute overhead, R&B matches or exceeds the performance of state-of-the-art data mixing strategies.

Many existing reinforcement learning (RL) methods employ stochastic gradient iteration on the back end, whose stability hinges upon a hypothesis that the data-generating process mixes exponentially fast with a rate parameter that appears in the step-size selection. Unfortunately, this assumption is violated for large state spaces or settings with sparse rewards, and the mixing time is unknown, making the step size inoperable. In this work, we propose an RL methodology attuned to the mixing time by employing a multi-level Monte Carlo estimator for the critic, the actor, and the average reward embedded within an actor-critic (AC) algorithm. This method, which we call Multi-level Actor-Critic (MAC), is developed especially for infinite-horizon average-reward settings and neither relies on oracle knowledge of the mixing time in its parameter selection nor assumes its exponential decay; it, therefore, is readily applicable to applications with slower mixing times. Nonetheless, it achieves a convergence rate comparable to the state-of-the-art AC algorithms. We experimentally show that these alleviated restrictions on the technical conditions required for stability translate to superior performance in practice for RL problems with sparse rewards.

Artificial intelligence is transforming financial investment decision-making frameworks, with deep reinforcement learning demonstrating substantial potential in robo-advisory applications. This paper addresses the limitations of traditional portfolio optimization methods in dynamic asset weight adjustment through the development of a deep reinforcement learning-based dynamic optimization model grounded in practical trading processes. The research advances two key innovations: first, the introduction of a novel Sharpe ratio reward function engineered for Actor-Critic deep reinforcement learning algorithms, which ensures stable convergence during training while consistently achieving positive average Sharpe ratios; second, the development of an innovative comprehensive approach to portfolio optimization utilizing deep reinforcement learning, which significantly enhances model optimization capability through the integration of random sampling strategies during training with image-based deep neural network architectures for multi-dimensional financial time series data processing, average Sharpe ratio reward functions, and deep reinforcement learning algorithms. The empirical analysis validates the model using randomly selected constituent stocks from the CSI 300 Index, benchmarking against established financial econometric optimization models. Backtesting results demonstrate the model's efficacy in optimizing portfolio allocation and mitigating investment risk, yielding superior comprehensive performance metrics.

In this paper, we approach the problem of uncertainty quantification in deep learning through a predictive framework, which captures uncertainty in model parameters by specifying our assumptions about the predictive distribution of unseen future data. Under this view, we show that deep ensembling (Lakshminarayanan et al., 2017) is a fundamentally mis-specified model class, since it assumes that future data are supported on existing observations only -- a situation rarely encountered in practice. To address this limitation, we propose MixupMP, a method that constructs a more realistic predictive distribution using popular data augmentation techniques. MixupMP operates as a drop-in replacement for deep ensembles, where each ensemble member is trained on a random simulation from this predictive distribution. Grounded in the recently-proposed framework of Martingale posteriors (Fong et al., 2023), MixupMP returns samples from an implicitly defined Bayesian posterior. Our empirical analysis showcases that MixupMP achieves superior predictive performance and uncertainty quantification on various image classification datasets, when compared with existing Bayesian and non-Bayesian approaches.

In this research paper, we investigate into a paper named "A Deep Reinforcement Learning Framework for the Financial Portfolio Management Problem" [arXiv:1706.10059]. It is a portfolio management problem which is solved by deep learning techniques. The original paper proposes a financial-model-free reinforcement learning framework, which consists of the Ensemble of Identical Independent Evaluators (EIIE) topology, a Portfolio-Vector Memory (PVM), an Online Stochastic Batch Learning (OSBL) scheme, and a fully exploiting and explicit reward function. Three different instants are used to realize this framework, namely a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), a basic Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), and a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). The performance is then examined by comparing to a number of recently reviewed or published portfolio-selection strategies. We have successfully replicated their implementations and evaluations. Besides, we further apply this framework in the stock market, instead of the cryptocurrency market that the original paper uses. The experiment in the cryptocurrency market is consistent with the original paper, which achieve superior returns. But it doesn't perform as well when applied in the stock market.

MixUp is a recently proposed data-augmentation scheme, which linearly interpolates a random pair of training examples and correspondingly the one-hot representations of their labels. Training deep neural networks with such additional data is shown capable of significantly improving the predictive accuracy of the current art. The power of MixUp, however, is primarily established empirically and its working and effectiveness have not been explained in any depth. In this paper, we develop an understanding for MixUp as a form of "out-of-manifold regularization", which imposes certain "local linearity" constraints on the model's input space beyond the data manifold. This analysis enables us to identify a limitation of MixUp, which we call "manifold intrusion". In a nutshell, manifold intrusion in MixUp is a form of under-fitting resulting from conflicts between the synthetic labels of the mixed-up examples and the labels of original training data. Such a phenomenon usually happens when the parameters controlling the generation of mixing policies are not sufficiently fine-tuned on the training data. To address this issue, we propose a novel adaptive version of MixUp, where the mixing policies are automatically learned from the data using an additional network and objective function designed to avoid manifold intrusion. The proposed regularizer, AdaMixUp, is empirically evaluated on several benchmark datasets. Extensive experiments demonstrate that AdaMixUp improves upon MixUp when applied to the current art of deep classification models.

Predicting future stock prices and their movement patterns is a complex problem. Hence, building a portfolio of capital assets using the predicted prices to achieve the optimization between its return and risk is an even more difficult task. This work has carried out an analysis of the time series of the historical prices of the top five stocks from the nine different sectors of the Indian stock market from January 1, 2016, to December 31, 2020. Optimum portfolios are built for each of these sectors. For predicting future stock prices, a long-and-short-term memory (LSTM) model is also designed and fine-tuned. After five months of the portfolio construction, the actual and the predicted returns and risks of each portfolio are computed. The predicted and the actual returns of each portfolio are found to be high, indicating the high precision of the LSTM model.

Contrastive learning has become a key component of self-supervised learning approaches for computer vision. By learning to embed two augmented versions of the same image close to each other and to push the embeddings of different images apart, one can train highly transferable visual representations. As revealed by recent studies, heavy data augmentation and large sets of negatives are both crucial in learning such representations. At the same time, data mixing strategies either at the image or the feature level improve both supervised and semi-supervised learning by synthesizing novel examples, forcing networks to learn more robust features. In this paper, we argue that an important aspect of contrastive learning, i.e., the effect of hard negatives, has so far been neglected. To get more meaningful negative samples, current top contrastive self-supervised learning approaches either substantially increase the batch sizes, or keep very large memory banks; increasing the memory size, however, leads to diminishing returns in terms of performance. We therefore start by delving deeper into a top-performing framework and show evidence that harder negatives are needed to facilitate better and faster learning. Based on these observations, and motivated by the success of data mixing, we propose hard negative mixing strategies at the feature level, that can be computed on-the-fly with a minimal computational overhead. We exhaustively ablate our approach on linear classification, object detection and instance segmentation and show that employing our hard negative mixing procedure improves the quality of visual representations learned by a state-of-the-art self-supervised learning method.

Mixup is an efficient data augmentation approach that improves the generalization of neural networks by smoothing the decision boundary with mixed data. Recently, dynamic mixup methods have improved previous static policies effectively (e.g., linear interpolation) by maximizing target-related salient regions in mixed samples, but excessive additional time costs are not acceptable. These additional computational overheads mainly come from optimizing the mixed samples according to the mixed labels. However, we found that the extra optimizing step may be redundant because label-mismatched mixed samples are informative hard mixed samples for deep models to localize discriminative features. In this paper, we thus are not trying to propose a more complicated dynamic mixup policy but rather an efficient mixup objective function with a decoupled regularizer named Decoupled Mixup (DM). The primary effect is that DM can adaptively utilize those hard mixed samples to mine discriminative features without losing the original smoothness of mixup. As a result, DM enables static mixup methods to achieve comparable or even exceed the performance of dynamic methods without any extra computation. This also leads to an interesting objective design problem for mixup training that we need to focus on both smoothing the decision boundaries and identifying discriminative features. Extensive experiments on supervised and semi-supervised learning benchmarks across seven datasets validate the effectiveness of DM as a plug-and-play module. Source code and models are available at https://github.com/Westlake-AI/openmixup

CutMix is a vital augmentation strategy that determines the performance and generalization ability of vision transformers (ViTs). However, the inconsistency between the mixed images and the corresponding labels harms its efficacy. Existing CutMix variants tackle this problem by generating more consistent mixed images or more precise mixed labels, but inevitably introduce heavy training overhead or require extra information, undermining ease of use. To this end, we propose an novel and effective Self-Motivated image Mixing method (SMMix), which motivates both image and label enhancement by the model under training itself. Specifically, we propose a max-min attention region mixing approach that enriches the attention-focused objects in the mixed images. Then, we introduce a fine-grained label assignment technique that co-trains the output tokens of mixed images with fine-grained supervision. Moreover, we devise a novel feature consistency constraint to align features from mixed and unmixed images. Due to the subtle designs of the self-motivated paradigm, our SMMix is significant in its smaller training overhead and better performance than other CutMix variants. In particular, SMMix improves the accuracy of DeiT-T/S/B, CaiT-XXS-24/36, and PVT-T/S/M/L by more than +1% on ImageNet-1k. The generalization capability of our method is also demonstrated on downstream tasks and out-of-distribution datasets. Our project is anonymously available at https://github.com/ChenMnZ/SMMix.

Ensembling outputs from diverse sources is a straightforward yet effective approach to boost performance. Mixture-of-Agents (MoA) is one such popular ensemble method that aggregates outputs from multiple different Large Language Models (LLMs). This paper raises the question in the context of language models: is mixing different LLMs truly beneficial? We propose Self-MoA -- an ensemble method that aggregates outputs from only the single top-performing LLM. Our extensive experiments reveal that, surprisingly, Self-MoA outperforms standard MoA that mixes different LLMs in a large number of scenarios: Self-MoA achieves 6.6% improvement over MoA on the AlpacaEval 2.0 benchmark, and an average of 3.8% improvement across various benchmarks, including MMLU, CRUX, and MATH. Applying Self-MoA to one of the top-ranking models in AlpacaEval 2.0 directly achieves the new state-of-the-art performance on the leaderboard. To understand the effectiveness of Self-MoA, we systematically investigate the trade-off between diversity and quality of outputs under various MoA settings. We confirm that the MoA performance is rather sensitive to the quality, and mixing different LLMs often lowers the average quality of the models. To complement the study, we identify the scenarios where mixing different LLMs could be helpful. This paper further introduces a sequential version of Self-MoA, that is capable of aggregating a large number of LLM outputs on-the-fly over multiple rounds, and is as effective as aggregating all outputs at once.

Personalized financial advice requires consideration of user goals, constraints, risk tolerance, and jurisdiction. Prior LLM work has focused on support systems for investors and financial planners. Simultaneously, numerous recent studies examine broader personal finance tasks, including budgeting, debt management, retirement, and estate planning, through agentic pipelines that incur high maintenance costs, yielding less than 25% of their expected financial returns. In this study, we introduce a novel and reproducible framework that integrates relevant financial context with behavioral finance studies to construct supervision data for end-to-end advisors. Using this framework, we create a 19k sample reasoning dataset and conduct a comprehensive fine-tuning of the Qwen-3-8B model on the dataset. Through a held-out test split and a blind LLM-jury study, we demonstrate that through careful data curation and behavioral integration, our 8B model achieves performance comparable to significantly larger baselines (14-32B parameters) across factual accuracy, fluency, and personalization metrics while incurring 80% lower costs than the larger counterparts.

Recent text-to-image generative models have enabled us to transform our words into vibrant, captivating imagery. The surge of personalization techniques that has followed has also allowed us to imagine unique concepts in new scenes. However, an intriguing question remains: How can we generate a new, imaginary concept that has never been seen before? In this paper, we present the task of creative text-to-image generation, where we seek to generate new members of a broad category (e.g., generating a pet that differs from all existing pets). We leverage the under-studied Diffusion Prior models and show that the creative generation problem can be formulated as an optimization process over the output space of the diffusion prior, resulting in a set of "prior constraints". To keep our generated concept from converging into existing members, we incorporate a question-answering model that adaptively adds new constraints to the optimization problem, encouraging the model to discover increasingly more unique creations. Finally, we show that our prior constraints can also serve as a strong mixing mechanism allowing us to create hybrids between generated concepts, introducing even more flexibility into the creative process.

Pretraining large language models effectively requires strategic data selection, blending and ordering. However, key details about data mixtures especially their scalability to longer token horizons and larger model sizes remain underexplored due to limited disclosure by model developers. To address this, we formalize the concept of two-phase pretraining and conduct an extensive systematic study on how to select and mix data to maximize model accuracies for the two phases. Our findings illustrate that a two-phase approach for pretraining outperforms random data ordering and natural distribution of tokens by 3.4% and 17% on average accuracies. We provide in-depth guidance on crafting optimal blends based on quality of the data source and the number of epochs to be seen. We propose to design blends using downsampled data at a smaller scale of 1T tokens and then demonstrate effective scaling of our approach to larger token horizon of 15T tokens and larger model size of 25B model size. These insights provide a series of steps practitioners can follow to design and scale their data blends.

In this report, we survey Bayesian Optimization methods focussed on the Multi-Armed Bandit Problem. We take the help of the paper "Portfolio Allocation for Bayesian Optimization". We report a small literature survey on the acquisition functions and the types of portfolio strategies used in papers discussing Bayesian Optimization. We also replicate the experiments and report our findings and compare them to the results in the paper. Code link: https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1GZ14klEDoe3dcBeZKo5l8qqrKf_GmBDn?usp=sharing#scrollTo=XgIBau3O45_V.

Token-mixing multi-layer perceptron (MLP) models have shown competitive performance in computer vision tasks with a simple architecture and relatively small computational cost. Their success in maintaining computation efficiency is mainly attributed to avoiding the use of self-attention that is often computationally heavy, yet this is at the expense of not being able to mix tokens both globally and locally. In this paper, to exploit both global and local dependencies without self-attention, we present Mix-Shift-MLP (MS-MLP) which makes the size of the local receptive field used for mixing increase with respect to the amount of spatial shifting. In addition to conventional mixing and shifting techniques, MS-MLP mixes both neighboring and distant tokens from fine- to coarse-grained levels and then gathers them via a shifting operation. This directly contributes to the interactions between global and local tokens. Being simple to implement, MS-MLP achieves competitive performance in multiple vision benchmarks. For example, an MS-MLP with 85 million parameters achieves 83.8% top-1 classification accuracy on ImageNet-1K. Moreover, by combining MS-MLP with state-of-the-art Vision Transformers such as the Swin Transformer, we show MS-MLP achieves further improvements on three different model scales, e.g., by 0.5% on ImageNet-1K classification with Swin-B. The code is available at: https://github.com/JegZheng/MS-MLP.

This work aims to implement Long Short-Term Memory mixture density networks (LSTM-MDNs) for Value-at-Risk forecasting and compare their performance with established models (historical simulation, CMM, and GARCH) using a defined backtesting procedure. The focus was on the neural network's ability to capture volatility clustering and its real-world applicability. Three architectures were tested: a 2-component mixture density network, a regularized 2-component model (Arimond et al., 2020), and a 3-component mixture model, the latter being tested for the first time in Value-at-Risk forecasting. Backtesting was performed on three stock indices (FTSE 100, S&P 500, EURO STOXX 50) over two distinct two-year periods (2017-2018 as a calm period, 2021-2022 as turbulent). Model performance was assessed through unconditional coverage and independence assumption tests. The neural network's ability to handle volatility clustering was validated via correlation analysis and graphical evaluation. Results show limited success for the neural network approach. LSTM-MDNs performed poorly for 2017/2018 but outperformed benchmark models in 2021/2022. The LSTM mechanism allowed the neural network to capture volatility clustering similarly to GARCH models. However, several issues were identified: the need for proper model initialization and reliance on large datasets for effective learning. The findings suggest that while LSTM-MDNs provide adequate risk forecasts, further research and adjustments are necessary for stable performance.

Accurate prediction of future prices of stocks is a difficult task to perform. Even more challenging is to design an optimized portfolio with weights allocated to the stocks in a way that optimizes its return and the risk. This paper presents a systematic approach towards building two types of portfolios, optimum risk, and eigen, for four critical economic sectors of India. The prices of the stocks are extracted from the web from Jan 1, 2016, to Dec 31, 2020. Sector-wise portfolios are built based on their ten most significant stocks. An LSTM model is also designed for predicting future stock prices. Six months after the construction of the portfolios, i.e., on Jul 1, 2021, the actual returns and the LSTM-predicted returns for the portfolios are computed. A comparison of the predicted and the actual returns indicate a high accuracy level of the LSTM model.

We investigate efficient methods for training Large Language Models (LLMs) to possess capabilities in multiple specialized domains, such as coding, math reasoning and world knowledge. Our method, named Branch-Train-MiX (BTX), starts from a seed model, which is branched to train experts in embarrassingly parallel fashion with high throughput and reduced communication cost. After individual experts are asynchronously trained, BTX brings together their feedforward parameters as experts in Mixture-of-Expert (MoE) layers and averages the remaining parameters, followed by an MoE-finetuning stage to learn token-level routing. BTX generalizes two special cases, the Branch-Train-Merge method, which does not have the MoE finetuning stage to learn routing, and sparse upcycling, which omits the stage of training experts asynchronously. Compared to alternative approaches, BTX achieves the best accuracy-efficiency tradeoff.

The integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the financial domain has opened new avenues for quantitative trading, particularly through the use of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, the challenge of effectively synthesizing insights from diverse data sources and integrating both structured and unstructured data persists. This paper presents TradeExpert, a novel framework that employs a mix of experts (MoE) approach, using four specialized LLMs, each analyzing distinct sources of financial data, including news articles, market data, alpha factors, and fundamental data. The insights of these expert LLMs are further synthesized by a General Expert LLM to make a final prediction or decision. With specific prompts, TradeExpert can be switched between the prediction mode and the ranking mode for stock movement prediction and quantitative stock trading, respectively. In addition to existing benchmarks, we also release a large-scale financial dataset to comprehensively evaluate TradeExpert's effectiveness. Our experimental results demonstrate TradeExpert's superior performance across all trading scenarios.

Mixup is a data augmentation strategy that employs convex combinations of training instances and their respective labels to augment the robustness and calibration of deep neural networks. Despite its widespread adoption, the nuanced mechanisms that underpin its success are not entirely understood. The observed phenomenon of Neural Collapse, where the last-layer activations and classifier of deep networks converge to a simplex equiangular tight frame (ETF), provides a compelling motivation to explore whether mixup induces alternative geometric configurations and whether those could explain its success. In this study, we delve into the last-layer activations of training data for deep networks subjected to mixup, aiming to uncover insights into its operational efficacy. Our investigation, spanning various architectures and dataset pairs, reveals that mixup's last-layer activations predominantly converge to a distinctive configuration different than one might expect. In this configuration, activations from mixed-up examples of identical classes align with the classifier, while those from different classes delineate channels along the decision boundary. Moreover, activations in earlier layers exhibit patterns, as if trained with manifold mixup. These findings are unexpected, as mixed-up features are not simple convex combinations of feature class means (as one might get, for example, by training mixup with the mean squared error loss). By analyzing this distinctive geometric configuration, we elucidate the mechanisms by which mixup enhances model calibration. To further validate our empirical observations, we conduct a theoretical analysis under the assumption of an unconstrained features model, utilizing the mixup loss. Through this, we characterize and derive the optimal last-layer features under the assumption that the classifier forms a simplex ETF.

Major Internet advertising platforms offer budget pacing tools as a standard service for advertisers to manage their ad campaigns. Given the inherent non-stationarity in an advertiser's value and also competing advertisers' values over time, a commonly used approach is to learn a target expenditure plan that specifies a target spend as a function of time, and then run a controller that tracks this plan. This raises the question: how many historical samples are required to learn a good expenditure plan? We study this question by considering an advertiser repeatedly participating in T second-price auctions, where the tuple of her value and the highest competing bid is drawn from an unknown time-varying distribution. The advertiser seeks to maximize her total utility subject to her budget constraint. Prior work has shown the sufficiency of Tlog T samples per distribution to achieve the optimal O(T)-regret. We dramatically improve this state-of-the-art and show that just one sample per distribution is enough to achieve the near-optimal tilde O(T)-regret, while still being robust to noise in the sampling distributions.

Text-to-image diffusion models have shown remarkable success in generating a personalized subject based on a few reference images. However, current methods struggle with handling multiple subjects simultaneously, often resulting in mixed identities with combined attributes from different subjects. In this work, we present MuDI, a novel framework that enables multi-subject personalization by effectively decoupling identities from multiple subjects. Our main idea is to utilize segmented subjects generated by the Segment Anything Model for both training and inference, as a form of data augmentation for training and initialization for the generation process. Our experiments demonstrate that MuDI can produce high-quality personalized images without identity mixing, even for highly similar subjects as shown in Figure 1. In human evaluation, MuDI shows twice as many successes for personalizing multiple subjects without identity mixing over existing baselines and is preferred over 70% compared to the strongest baseline. More results are available at https://mudi-t2i.github.io/.

This paper proposes a reinforcement learning framework that employs Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) to dynamically optimize the weights of multiple large language model (LLM)-generated formulaic alphas for stock trading strategies. Formulaic alphas are mathematically defined trading signals derived from price, volume, sentiment, and other data. Although recent studies have shown that LLMs can generate diverse and effective alphas, a critical challenge lies in how to adaptively integrate them under varying market conditions. To address this gap, we leverage the deepseek-r1-distill-llama-70b model to generate fifty alphas for five major stocks: Apple, HSBC, Pepsi, Toyota, and Tencent, and then use PPO to adjust their weights in real time. Experimental results demonstrate that the PPO-optimized strategy achieves strong returns and high Sharpe ratios across most stocks, outperforming both an equal-weighted alpha portfolio and traditional benchmarks such as the Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and Hang Seng Index. The findings highlight the importance of reinforcement learning in the allocation of alpha weights and show the potential of combining LLM-generated signals with adaptive optimization for robust financial forecasting and trading.

Introduction: The paper addresses the challenging problem of predicting the short-term realized volatility of the Bitcoin price using order flow information. The inherent stochastic nature and anti-persistence of price pose difficulties in accurate prediction. Methods: To address this, we propose a method that transforms order flow data over a fixed time interval (snapshots) into images. The order flow includes trade sizes, trade directions, and limit order book, and is mapped into image colour channels. These images are then used to train both a simple 3-layer Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and more advanced ResNet-18 and ConvMixer, with additionally supplementing them with hand-crafted features. The models are evaluated against classical GARCH, Multilayer Perceptron trained on raw data, and a naive guess method that considers current volatility as a prediction. Results: The experiments are conducted using price data from January 2021 and evaluate model performance in terms of root mean square error (RMSPE). The results show that our order flow representation with a CNN as a predictive model achieves the best performance, with an RMSPE of 0.85+/-1.1 for the model with aggregated features and 1.0+/-1.4 for the model without feature supplementation. ConvMixer with feature supplementation follows closely. In comparison, the RMSPE for the naive guess method was 1.4+/-3.0.

While diffusion models show extraordinary talents in text-to-image generation, they may still fail to generate highly aesthetic images. More specifically, there is still a gap between the generated images and the real-world aesthetic images in finer-grained dimensions including color, lighting, composition, etc. In this paper, we propose Cross-Attention Value Mixing Control (VMix) Adapter, a plug-and-play aesthetics adapter, to upgrade the quality of generated images while maintaining generality across visual concepts by (1) disentangling the input text prompt into the content description and aesthetic description by the initialization of aesthetic embedding, and (2) integrating aesthetic conditions into the denoising process through value-mixed cross-attention, with the network connected by zero-initialized linear layers. Our key insight is to enhance the aesthetic presentation of existing diffusion models by designing a superior condition control method, all while preserving the image-text alignment. Through our meticulous design, VMix is flexible enough to be applied to community models for better visual performance without retraining. To validate the effectiveness of our method, we conducted extensive experiments, showing that VMix outperforms other state-of-the-art methods and is compatible with other community modules (e.g., LoRA, ControlNet, and IPAdapter) for image generation. The project page is https://vmix-diffusion.github.io/VMix/.

Large diffusion-based Text-to-Image (T2I) models have shown impressive generative powers for text-to-image generation as well as spatially conditioned image generation. For most applications, we can train the model end-toend with paired data to obtain photorealistic generation quality. However, to add an additional task, one often needs to retrain the model from scratch using paired data across all modalities to retain good generation performance. In this paper, we tackle this issue and propose a novel strategy to scale a generative model across new tasks with minimal compute. During our experiments, we discovered that the variance maps of intermediate feature maps of diffusion models capture the intensity of conditioning. Utilizing this prior information, we propose MaxFusion, an efficient strategy to scale up text-to-image generation models to accommodate new modality conditions. Specifically, we combine aligned features of multiple models, hence bringing a compositional effect. Our fusion strategy can be integrated into off-the-shelf models to enhance their generative prowess.

Generative models are transforming creative domains such as music generation, with inference-time strategies like Classifier-Free Guidance (CFG) playing a crucial role. However, CFG doubles inference cost while limiting originality and diversity across generated contents. In this paper, we introduce diversity-rewarded CFG distillation, a novel finetuning procedure that distills the strengths of CFG while addressing its limitations. Our approach optimises two training objectives: (1) a distillation objective, encouraging the model alone (without CFG) to imitate the CFG-augmented predictions, and (2) an RL objective with a diversity reward, promoting the generation of diverse outputs for a given prompt. By finetuning, we learn model weights with the ability to generate high-quality and diverse outputs, without any inference overhead. This also unlocks the potential of weight-based model merging strategies: by interpolating between the weights of two models (the first focusing on quality, the second on diversity), we can control the quality-diversity trade-off at deployment time, and even further boost performance. We conduct extensive experiments on the MusicLM (Agostinelli et al., 2023) text-to-music generative model, where our approach surpasses CFG in terms of quality-diversity Pareto optimality. According to human evaluators, our finetuned-then-merged model generates samples with higher quality-diversity than the base model augmented with CFG. Explore our generations at https://google-research.github.io/seanet/musiclm/diverse_music/.

Content creators often aim to create personalized images using personal subjects that go beyond the capabilities of conventional text-to-image models. Additionally, they may want the resulting image to encompass a specific location, style, ambiance, and more. Existing personalization methods may compromise personalization ability or the alignment to complex textual prompts. This trade-off can impede the fulfillment of user prompts and subject fidelity. We propose a new approach focusing on personalization methods for a single prompt to address this issue. We term our approach prompt-aligned personalization. While this may seem restrictive, our method excels in improving text alignment, enabling the creation of images with complex and intricate prompts, which may pose a challenge for current techniques. In particular, our method keeps the personalized model aligned with a target prompt using an additional score distillation sampling term. We demonstrate the versatility of our method in multi- and single-shot settings and further show that it can compose multiple subjects or use inspiration from reference images, such as artworks. We compare our approach quantitatively and qualitatively with existing baselines and state-of-the-art techniques.

Diffusion models excel at generating high-quality images and are easy to extend, making them extremely popular among active users who have created an extensive collection of diffusion models with various styles by fine-tuning base models such as Stable Diffusion. Recent work has focused on uncovering semantic and visual information encoded in various components of a diffusion model, enabling better generation quality and more fine-grained control. However, those methods target improving a single model and overlook the vastly available collection of fine-tuned diffusion models. In this work, we study the combinations of diffusion models. We propose Diffusion Cocktail (Ditail), a training-free method that can accurately transfer content information between two diffusion models. This allows us to perform diverse generations using a set of diffusion models, resulting in novel images that are unlikely to be obtained by a single model alone. We also explore utilizing Ditail for style transfer, with the target style set by a diffusion model instead of an image. Ditail offers a more detailed manipulation of the diffusion generation, thereby enabling the vast community to integrate various styles and contents seamlessly and generate any content of any style.

Large language models (LLMs) achieve strong performance across benchmarks--from knowledge quizzes and math reasoning to web-agent tasks--but these tests occur in static settings, lacking real dynamics and uncertainty. Consequently, they evaluate isolated reasoning or problem-solving rather than decision-making under uncertainty. To address this, we introduce LiveTradeBench, a live trading environment for evaluating LLM agents in realistic and evolving markets. LiveTradeBench follows three design principles: (i) Live data streaming of market prices and news, eliminating dependence on offline backtesting and preventing information leakage while capturing real-time uncertainty; (ii) a portfolio-management abstraction that extends control from single-asset actions to multi-asset allocation, integrating risk management and cross-asset reasoning; and (iii) multi-market evaluation across structurally distinct environments--U.S. stocks and Polymarket prediction markets--differing in volatility, liquidity, and information flow. At each step, an agent observes prices, news, and its portfolio, then outputs percentage allocations that balance risk and return. Using LiveTradeBench, we run 50-day live evaluations of 21 LLMs across families. Results show that (1) high LMArena scores do not imply superior trading outcomes; (2) models display distinct portfolio styles reflecting risk appetite and reasoning dynamics; and (3) some LLMs effectively leverage live signals to adapt decisions. These findings expose a gap between static evaluation and real-world competence, motivating benchmarks that test sequential decision making and consistency under live uncertainty.

This work presents mixed variational flows (MixFlows), a new variational family that consists of a mixture of repeated applications of a map to an initial reference distribution. First, we provide efficient algorithms for i.i.d. sampling, density evaluation, and unbiased ELBO estimation. We then show that MixFlows have MCMC-like convergence guarantees when the flow map is ergodic and measure-preserving, and provide bounds on the accumulation of error for practical implementations where the flow map is approximated. Finally, we develop an implementation of MixFlows based on uncorrected discretized Hamiltonian dynamics combined with deterministic momentum refreshment. Simulated and real data experiments show that MixFlows can provide more reliable posterior approximations than several black-box normalizing flows, as well as samples of comparable quality to those obtained from state-of-the-art MCMC methods.

Sequence and channel mixers, the core mechanism in sequence models, have become the de facto standard in time series analysis (TSA). However, recent studies have questioned the necessity of complex sequence mixers, such as attention mechanisms, demonstrating that simpler architectures can achieve comparable or even superior performance. This suggests that the benefits attributed to complex sequencemixers might instead emerge from other architectural or optimization factors. Based on this observation, we pose a central question: Are common sequence mixers necessary for time-series analysis? Therefore, we propose JustDense, an empirical study that systematically replaces sequence mixers in various well-established TSA models with dense layers. Grounded in the MatrixMixer framework, JustDense treats any sequence mixer as a mixing matrix and replaces it with a dense layer. This substitution isolates the mixing operation, enabling a clear theoretical foundation for understanding its role. Therefore, we conducted extensive experiments on 29 benchmarks covering five representative TSA tasks using seven state-of-the-art TSA models to address our research question. The results show that replacing sequence mixers with dense layers yields comparable or even superior performance. In the cases where dedicated sequence mixers still offer benefits, JustDense challenges the assumption that "deeper and more complex architectures are inherently better" in TSA.