Daily Papers

Language models (LM) are capable of remarkably complex linguistic tasks; however, numerical reasoning is an area in which they frequently struggle. An important but rarely evaluated form of reasoning is understanding probability distributions. In this paper, we focus on evaluating the probabilistic reasoning capabilities of LMs using idealized and real-world statistical distributions. We perform a systematic evaluation of state-of-the-art LMs on three tasks: estimating percentiles, drawing samples, and calculating probabilities. We evaluate three ways to provide context to LMs 1) anchoring examples from within a distribution or family of distributions, 2) real-world context, 3) summary statistics on which to base a Normal approximation. Models can make inferences about distributions, and can be further aided by the incorporation of real-world context, example shots and simplified assumptions, even if these assumptions are incorrect or misspecified. To conduct this work, we developed a comprehensive benchmark distribution dataset with associated question-answer pairs that we will release publicly.

We present a single-GPU (H100, bf16) evaluation of GPT-OSS-20B (Mixture-of-Experts; 20.9B total, approx. 3.61B active) against dense baselines Qwen3-32B and Yi-34B across multiple dimensions. We measure true time-to-first-token (TTFT), full-decode throughput (TPOT), end-to-end latency percentiles, peak VRAM with past key values (PKV) held, and energy via a consistent nvidia-smi-based sampler. At a 2048-token context with 64-token decode, GPT-OSS-20B delivers higher decode throughput and tokens per Joule than dense baselines Qwen3-32B and Yi-34B, while substantially reducing peak VRAM and energy per 1000 generated tokens; its TTFT is higher due to MoE routing overhead. With only 17.3% of parameters active (3.61B of 20.9B), GPT-OSS-20B provides about 31.8% higher decode throughput and 25.8% lower energy per 1000 generated tokens than Qwen3-32B at 2048/64, while using 31.7% less peak VRAM. Normalized by active parameters, GPT-OSS-20B shows markedly stronger per-active-parameter efficiency (APE), underscoring MoE's deployment advantages. We do not evaluate accuracy; this is a deployment-focused study. We release code and consolidated results to enable replication and extension.

Efficiently managing compute resources for Large Language Model (LLM) inference remains challenging due to the inherently stochastic and variable lengths of autoregressive text generation. Accurately estimating response lengths in advance enables proactive resource allocation, yet existing approaches either bias text generation towards certain lengths or rely on assumptions that ignore model- and prompt-specific variability. We introduce CASTILLO, a dataset characterizing response length distributions across 13 widely-used open-source LLMs evaluated on seven distinct instruction-following corpora. For each langleprompt, modelrangle sample pair, we generate 10 independent completions using fixed decoding hyper-parameters, record the token length of each response, and publish summary statistics (mean, std-dev, percentiles), along with the shortest and longest completions, and the exact generation settings. Our analysis reveals significant inter- and intra-model variability in response lengths (even under identical generation settings), as well as model-specific behaviors and occurrences of partial text degeneration in only subsets of responses. CASTILLO enables the development of predictive models for proactive scheduling and provides a systematic framework for analyzing model-specific generation behaviors. We publicly release the dataset and code to foster research at the intersection of generative language modeling and systems.