1 INTRODUCTION
2 METHODOLOGY TO CONSTRUCT THE DEMOGRAPHIC MODEL
2.1 The dwarf galaxy population
2.2 Occupation fraction
2.3 Black hole mass scaling relations
2.4 The Eddington ratio distribution
2.5 Model consistency with observational constraints
2.6 Optical bolometric corrections
2.7 Optical variability
2.8 Optical Type 1 fraction
3 MOCK OBSERVATIONS
3.1 Light curves
3.2 Observational Forecasts
3.3 Recoverability of black hole masses from variability timescales
4 DISCUSSION
4.1 Comparison with previous work
4.2 The effect of uncertainty on stellar mass measurements
4.3 Recovery of the host galaxy-black hole mass scaling relation
4.4 Extension beyond the local Universe
4.5 Caveats & Future work
4.6 A note on the optical variability amplitude
5 CONCLUSIONS